Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, September 13, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Stade Brestois 29 (85%), while victory for Paris Saint Germain was rated at only 6%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): missed.
Match analysis
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain was played on Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 4). Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest. Before kick-off, our model gave Stade Brestois 29 a 85% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Paris Saint Germain 6%. The most likely correct score is 3-1 (7.1%), ahead of 4-1 (7.1%) and 3-0 (6.0%).
Stade Brestois 29 have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Paris Saint Germain have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 11 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Stade Brestois 29 score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Paris Saint Germain score 2.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Stade Brestois 29 sit 7th with 5 points from 3 games, Paris Saint Germain 14th with 2 points from 3. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 have averaged 2.71 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.97 for Paris Saint Germain.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 (May 10, 2026). Stade Brestois 29 out or doubtful: R. Cagnon, B. Chardonnet, M. Diambou and N. Edjouma. Paris Saint Germain: A. Longoni. In double chance terms, "Stade Brestois 29 or draw" stands at 94%, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" at 15% and "no draw" at 91%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Stade Brestois 29 – Paris Saint Germain. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 3-1 Paris Saint Germain | 7.1% |
| Stade Brestois 29 4-1 Paris Saint Germain | 7.1% |
| Stade Brestois 29 3-0 Paris Saint Germain | 6.0% |
| Stade Brestois 29 4-0 Paris Saint Germain | 6.0% |
| Stade Brestois 29 5-1 Paris Saint Germain | 5.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 5.18 goals in total (4.00 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.18 for Paris Saint Germain): over 2.5 goals has a 89% probability and both teams to score 68%. Everything points to an open game. Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Paris Saint Germain in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 expected goals | 4.00 |
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | 68% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 76% |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 31% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Stade Brestois 29
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Venezia · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 6-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens · Trophée des Champions | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 14 | 2 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 0-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Stade Brestois 29
- R. Cagnon (out)
- B. Chardonnet (out)
- M. Diambou (out)
- N. Edjouma (out)
Paris Saint Germain
- A. Longoni (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Rennes 1-0 MarseilleSep 11, 2026
- Strasbourg 1-1 MonacoSep 12, 2026
- Paris FC 0-0 LyonSep 12, 2026
- Le Havre 0-0 AngersSep 12, 2026
- Auxerre 1-0 NiceSep 12, 2026
- Lorient 2-2 ToulouseSep 12, 2026
- Lille 2-0 Estac TroyesSep 13, 2026
- Le Mans 2-2 LensSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Stade Brestois 29 a 85% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Paris Saint Germain 6%. Stade Brestois 29 are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
3-1 (7.1%), followed by 4-1 (7.1%), 3-0 (6.0%), 4-0 (6.0%) and 5-1 (5.7%).
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
The probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain score is 68%. Stade Brestois 29 have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paris Saint Germain 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model expects 5.18 goals (4.00 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.18 for Paris Saint Germain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 89%, over 3.5 goals 76%.
When and where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain played?
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 4. Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain in?
Stade Brestois 29: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Paris Saint Germain: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 (May 10, 2026).
What was the Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Stade Brestois 29 (85%), while victory for Paris Saint Germain was rated at only 6%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): missed.
How is the Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.18 for Paris Saint Germain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Stade Brestois 29 predictions
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology