Skip to content
Elofoot

Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Lorient vs Toulouse: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

LorientLorient2 – 2ToulouseToulouse

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lorient (52%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.

Match analysis

Lorient vs Toulouse was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 4). Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient. Before kick-off, our model gave Lorient a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toulouse 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (9.7%), ahead of 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (7.3%).

Lorient have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Toulouse have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Lorient score 0.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Toulouse score 1.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Lorient sit 8th with 4 points from 3 games, Toulouse 17th with 1 points from 3. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lorient have averaged 1.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.96 for Toulouse.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lorient, 1 for Toulouse and 1 draw. The most recent ended Toulouse 1-0 Lorient (Mar 21, 2026). Lorient out or doubtful: B. Fadiga. Toulouse: A. Donnum, A. Francis and G. Restes. In double chance terms, "Lorient or draw" stands at 74%, "Toulouse or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 78%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

52%
Lorient (Win)
22%
Draw
26%
Toulouse (Win)

Double chance

74%
Lorient or draw
48%
Toulouse or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Lorient – Toulouse. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Lorient 1-1 Toulouse9.7%
Lorient 2-1 Toulouse9.5%
Lorient 1-0 Toulouse7.3%
Lorient 2-0 Toulouse7.2%
Lorient 1-2 Toulouse6.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.30 goals in total (1.97 for Lorient, 1.33 for Toulouse): over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability and both teams to score 63%. Everything points to an open game. Lorient keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Toulouse in 14%.

Probability
Lorient expected goals1.97
Toulouse expected goals1.33
Both teams to score63%
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Lorient clean sheet26%
Toulouse clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Lorient

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026Lens · Ligue 11-0W
Aug 29, 2026Estac Troyes · Ligue 11-2L
Aug 22, 2026Nice · Ligue 10-0D
Aug 15, 2026SV Elversberg · Club Friendlies1-4L
Aug 8, 2026Angers · Club Friendlies1-2L

Toulouse

DateOpponentScore
Sep 3, 2026Lille · Ligue 10-1L
Aug 29, 2026Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 12-2D
Aug 22, 2026Lyon · Ligue 10-2L
Aug 15, 2026Hamburger SV · Club Friendlies1-2L
Jul 31, 2026Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies2-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Lorient843
Toulouse1713

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 21, 2026Toulouse 1-0 LorientLigue 1
Nov 9, 2025Lorient 1-1 ToulouseLigue 1

Out and doubtful

Lorient

  • B. Fadiga (out)

Toulouse

  • A. Donnum (out)
  • A. Francis (out)
  • G. Restes (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Lorient vs Toulouse prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Lorient a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toulouse 26%. Lorient are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Lorient vs Toulouse?

1-1 (9.7%), followed by 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.3%), 2-0 (7.2%) and 1-2 (6.4%).

Will both teams score in Lorient vs Toulouse?

The probability that both Lorient and Toulouse score is 63%. Lorient have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Toulouse 14%.

How many goals should we expect in Lorient vs Toulouse?

The model expects 3.30 goals (1.97 for Lorient, 1.33 for Toulouse). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.

When and where is Lorient vs Toulouse played?

Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 4. Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient.

What form are Lorient and Toulouse in?

Lorient: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded). Toulouse: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Toulouse?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lorient, 1 for Toulouse and 1 draw. The most recent ended Toulouse 1-0 Lorient (Mar 21, 2026).

What was the Lorient vs Toulouse result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lorient (52%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.

How is the Lorient vs Toulouse prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.97 for Lorient, 1.33 for Toulouse) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained