Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Estac Troyes vs Marseille prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ligue 1, matchday 6: the Estac Troyes vs Marseille match is scheduled on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes. Our model makes Estac Troyes clear favourites: a 60% chance of winning, against 20% for the draw and 20% for Marseille. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (9.8%), followed by 1-1 (9.0%) and 2-0 (8.3%).
Estac Troyes have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 13. Marseille have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 12. Estac Troyes therefore arrive in far better shape than Marseille. On average Estac Troyes score 1.20 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Marseille score 0.80 and concede 2.40. In the table, Estac Troyes sit 16th with 4 points from 5 games, Marseille 17th with 3 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Estac Troyes have averaged 1.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.40 for Marseille.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estac Troyes, 4 for Marseille and 1 draw. The most recent ended Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes (Apr 16, 2023). In double chance terms, "Estac Troyes or draw" stands at 80%, "Marseille or draw" at 40% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Estac Troyes are tipped by our AI model in this Estac Troyes v Marseille (60%). In the table, Estac Troyes (16th, 4 pts) host Marseille (17th, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Estac Troyes – Marseille. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estac Troyes 2-1 Marseille | 9.8% |
| Estac Troyes 1-1 Marseille | 9.0% |
| Estac Troyes 2-0 Marseille | 8.3% |
| Estac Troyes 1-0 Marseille | 7.7% |
| Estac Troyes 3-1 Marseille | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.16 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.17 for Marseille, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 65% and "both teams to score" at 61%. Goals look likely in this one. Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Marseille in 12%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Estac Troyes expected goals | 2.16 |
| Marseille expected goals | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 31% |
| Marseille clean sheet | 12% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Estac Troyes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 2-6 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
Marseille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 16 | 4 | 5 |
| Marseille | 17 | 3 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2023 | Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 28, 2021 | Marseille 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 15, 2018 | Estac Troyes 2-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Estac Troyes
No absences reported.
Marseille
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Estac Troyes
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Mille4/4
- A. Monfray4/4
- A. Ouzenadji4/4
- J. M. Diaz4/4
- M. Diop4/4
- P. Beach4/4
- D. Karim3/4
- H. Picard3/4
- L. Maronnier3/4
- I. Gomis2/4
- J. Le Douaron2/4
Marseille
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Emerson4/5
- Amine Gouiri3/5
- Amine Harit3/5
- Angel Gomes3/5
- Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley3/5
- Himad Abdelli3/5
- Igor Paixão3/5
- Jeffrey De Lange3/5
- Pierre-Emile Højbjerg3/5
- Timothy Weah3/5
- A. Harit2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Lens – LyonOct 9, 2026
- Lille – Le HavreOct 10, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 – AngersOct 10, 2026
- Lorient – Paris FCOct 10, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain – Le MansOct 10, 2026
- Monaco – ToulouseOct 10, 2026
- Nice – StrasbourgOct 11, 2026
- Rennes – AuxerreOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Estac Troyes vs Marseille prediction?
Our AI gives Estac Troyes a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Marseille 20%. Estac Troyes are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
2-1 (9.8%), followed by 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.3%), 1-0 (7.7%) and 3-1 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
The probability that both Estac Troyes and Marseille score is 61%. Estac Troyes have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Marseille 12%.
How many goals should we expect in Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
The model expects 3.33 goals (2.16 for Estac Troyes, 1.17 for Marseille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.
When and where is Estac Troyes vs Marseille played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes.
What form are Estac Troyes and Marseille in?
Estac Troyes: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 13 conceded). Marseille: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Marseille?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estac Troyes, 4 for Marseille and 1 draw. The most recent ended Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes (Apr 16, 2023).
How is the Estac Troyes vs Marseille prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.16 for Estac Troyes, 1.17 for Marseille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Estac Troyes predictions
- All Marseille predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology