Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Monaco vs Toulouse: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Monaco 2-2 Toulouse. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Monaco (72%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
Monaco vs Toulouse was played on Saturday, October 10, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 6). Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco. Before kick-off, our model gave Monaco a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Toulouse 10%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (14.7%), ahead of 1-0 (14.2%) and 3-0 (10.1%).
Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 3. Toulouse have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Monaco. On average Monaco score 1.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Toulouse score 1.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Monaco sit 1st with 13 points from 5 games, Toulouse 14th with 5 points from 5. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Monaco have averaged 1.11 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.14 for Toulouse.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Monaco, 1 for Toulouse and 2 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 2-2 Monaco (Apr 25, 2026). Monaco out or doubtful: P. Brunner (suspended). Toulouse: J. Vignolo. In double chance terms, "Monaco or draw" stands at 90%, "Toulouse or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Monaco are tipped by our AI model in this Monaco v Toulouse (72%). In the table, Monaco (1st, 13 pts) host Toulouse (14th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Monaco – Toulouse. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Monaco 2-0 Toulouse | 14.7% |
| Monaco 1-0 Toulouse | 14.2% |
| Monaco 3-0 Toulouse | 10.1% |
| Monaco 2-1 Toulouse | 9.0% |
| Monaco 1-1 Toulouse | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (2.07 for Monaco, 0.61 for Toulouse): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 40%. Monaco keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, Toulouse in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Monaco expected goals | 2.07 |
| Toulouse expected goals | 0.61 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Monaco clean sheet | 54% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Monaco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pisa · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
Toulouse
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1 | 13 | 5 |
| Toulouse | 14 | 5 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Toulouse 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Monaco 1-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Toulouse 1-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Monaco 2-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Monaco 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Monaco
- P. Brunner (suspended)
Toulouse
- J. Vignolo (out)
Most regular starters
Monaco
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Golovin4/4
- D. Zakaria4/4
- E. Dier4/4
- L. Camara4/4
- L. Hradecky4/4
- Nazinho4/4
- P. Brunner4/4
- S. Sane4/4
- Vanderson4/4
- S. Idumbo3/4
- M. Coulibaly2/4
Toulouse
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Casseres4/4
- C. Tape4/4
- J. Russell-Rowe4/4
- M. McKenzie4/4
- T. Jorgensen4/4
- G. Restes3/4
- I. Azizi3/4
- R. Messali3/4
- A. Vossah2/4
- R. Nicolaisen2/4
- S. Hidalgo2/4
Other matches in this competition
- Lens 2-1 LyonOct 9, 2026
- Lille 1-0 Le HavreOct 10, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 5-1 AngersOct 10, 2026
- Lorient 1-0 Paris FCOct 10, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le MansOct 10, 2026
- Nice 2-1 StrasbourgOct 11, 2026
- Rennes 4-1 AuxerreOct 11, 2026
- Estac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Monaco vs Toulouse prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Monaco a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Toulouse 10%. Monaco are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Monaco vs Toulouse?
2-0 (14.7%), followed by 1-0 (14.2%), 3-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.0%) and 1-1 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The probability that both Monaco and Toulouse score is 40%. Monaco have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Toulouse 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model expects 2.68 goals (2.07 for Monaco, 0.61 for Toulouse). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Monaco vs Toulouse played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco.
What form are Monaco and Toulouse in?
Monaco: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded). Toulouse: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Toulouse?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Monaco, 1 for Toulouse and 2 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 2-2 Monaco (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the Monaco vs Toulouse result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Monaco 2-2 Toulouse. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Monaco (72%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the Monaco vs Toulouse prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.07 for Monaco, 0.61 for Toulouse) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.