Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Monaco vs Toulouse prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ligue 1, matchday 6: Monaco vs Toulouse kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco. With a 61% win probability, Monaco go in as strong favourites against Toulouse (18%), with the draw rated at 21%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.9%), ahead of 1-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.5%).
Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Toulouse have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Monaco. On average Monaco score 2.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Toulouse score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, Monaco sit 1st with 13 points from 5 games, Toulouse 13th with 5 points from 5. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Monaco have averaged 1.11 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.96 for Toulouse.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Monaco, 1 for Toulouse and 2 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 2-2 Monaco (Apr 25, 2026). Monaco out or doubtful: M. Biereth, M. Coulibaly, A. Fati, S. Idumbo, A. Soubeir and J. Teze. Toulouse: A. Francis and R. Nicolaisen. In double chance terms, "Monaco or draw" stands at 82%, "Toulouse or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Monaco are tipped by our AI model in this Monaco v Toulouse (61%). In the table, Monaco (1st, 13 pts) host Toulouse (13th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Monaco – Toulouse. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Monaco 2-1 Toulouse | 9.9% |
| Monaco 1-1 Toulouse | 9.6% |
| Monaco 2-0 Toulouse | 9.5% |
| Monaco 1-0 Toulouse | 9.1% |
| Monaco 3-1 Toulouse | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.12 goals in total (2.07 for Monaco, 1.05 for Toulouse): over 2.5 goals has a 60% probability and both teams to score 57%. Everything points to an open game. Monaco keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Toulouse in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Monaco expected goals | 2.07 |
| Toulouse expected goals | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Monaco clean sheet | 35% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Monaco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
Toulouse
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1 | 13 | 5 |
| Toulouse | 13 | 5 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Toulouse 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Monaco 1-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Toulouse 1-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Monaco 2-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Monaco 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Monaco
- M. Biereth (out)
- M. Coulibaly (out)
- A. Fati (out)
- S. Idumbo (out)
- A. Soubeir (out)
- J. Teze (out)
Toulouse
- A. Francis (out)
- R. Nicolaisen (out)
Most regular starters
Monaco
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vanderson5/5
- Nazinho4/5
- Sadibou Sané4/5
- Aleksandr Golovin3/5
- Denis Zakaria3/5
- Eric Dier3/5
- Lamine Camara3/5
- Lukáš Hrádecký3/5
- Paris Brunner3/5
- Stanis Idumbo Muzambo3/5
- A. Golovin2/5
Toulouse
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Christ Tapé4/5
- Cristian Cásseres Jr.4/5
- Mark McKenzie4/5
- Thomas Jørgensen4/5
- Guillaume Restes3/5
- Jacen Russell Rowe3/5
- Rasmus Nicolaisen3/5
- Santiago Hidalgo3/5
- Alexis Vossah2/5
- Ilyas Azizi2/5
- Ismail Diallo2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Lens – LyonOct 9, 2026
- Lille – Le HavreOct 10, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 – AngersOct 10, 2026
- Lorient – Paris FCOct 10, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain – Le MansOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Monaco vs Toulouse prediction?
Our AI gives Monaco a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Toulouse 18%. Monaco are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Monaco vs Toulouse?
2-1 (9.9%), followed by 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%) and 3-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The probability that both Monaco and Toulouse score is 57%. Monaco have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Toulouse 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model expects 3.12 goals (2.07 for Monaco, 1.05 for Toulouse). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Monaco vs Toulouse played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco.
What form are Monaco and Toulouse in?
Monaco: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded). Toulouse: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Toulouse?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Monaco, 1 for Toulouse and 2 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 2-2 Monaco (Apr 25, 2026).
How is the Monaco vs Toulouse prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.07 for Monaco, 1.05 for Toulouse) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.