Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Paris Saint Germain take on Le Mans on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a Ligue 1, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris. Paris Saint Germain start as favourites with a 56% chance of victory; Le Mans are given 24% and the draw 20%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (9.2%), followed by 1-1 (8.3%) and 3-1 (6.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Paris Saint Germain have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Le Mans have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 9 and conceding 9. Paris Saint Germain therefore arrive in far better shape than Le Mans. On average Paris Saint Germain score 2.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Le Mans score 1.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, Paris Saint Germain sit 6th with 8 points from 5 games, Le Mans 9th with 6 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Paris Saint Germain have averaged 1.64 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.90 for Le Mans.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for Le Mans and 0 draws. The most recent ended Le Mans 0-2 Paris Saint Germain (Feb 4, 2025). Paris Saint Germain out or doubtful: A. Hakimi and Q. Ndjantou. Le Mans: L. Buades, E. Colas, T. Eyoum, E. Quarshie and M. Rossignol. In double chance terms, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" stands at 76%, "Le Mans or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Paris Saint Germain are favourites for this Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans, with a 56% win probability from our model. In the table, Paris Saint Germain (6th, 8 pts) host Le Mans (9th, 6 pts). One to watch: Le Mans will be without L. Buades and E. Colas.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Paris Saint Germain – Le Mans. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Le Mans | 9.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Le Mans | 8.3% |
| Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans | 6.8% |
| Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Le Mans | 6.5% |
| Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Le Mans | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.21 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.41 for Le Mans, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 70% and "both teams to score" at 67%. Goals look likely in this one. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Le Mans in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 2.21 |
| Le Mans expected goals | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 24% |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 6-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Le Mans
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| Le Mans | 9 | 6 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | Le Mans 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| Jul 14, 2021 | Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Le Mans | Club Friendlies |
| Dec 18, 2019 | Le Mans 1-4 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de la Ligue |
Out and doubtful
Paris Saint Germain
- A. Hakimi (out)
- Q. Ndjantou (out)
Le Mans
- L. Buades (out)
- E. Colas (out)
- T. Eyoum (out)
- E. Quarshie (out)
- M. Rossignol (out)
Most regular starters
Paris Saint Germain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha5/5
- Marquinhos4/5
- Achraf Hakimi3/5
- Fabián Ruiz3/5
- João Neves3/5
- Matvey Safonov3/5
- Warren Zaïre-Emery3/5
- Willian Pacho3/5
- Désiré Doué2/5
- Ferran Torres2/5
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2/5
Le Mans
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Adil Bourabaa4/5
- Dame Gueye4/5
- Louis Mafouta4/5
- Noa Boissé4/5
- Alexandre Lauray3/5
- Harold Voyer3/5
- Lucas Calodat3/5
- Rayan Bamba3/5
- Ewan Hatfout2/5
- Jean Vercruysse2/5
- Lucas Bretelle2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Lens – LyonOct 9, 2026
- Lille – Le HavreOct 10, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 – AngersOct 10, 2026
- Lorient – Paris FCOct 10, 2026
- Monaco – ToulouseOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans prediction?
Our AI gives Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Le Mans 24%. Paris Saint Germain are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
2-1 (9.2%), followed by 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (6.8%), 2-0 (6.5%) and 2-2 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
The probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans score is 67%. Paris Saint Germain have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Le Mans 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
The model expects 3.62 goals (2.21 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.41 for Le Mans). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.
When and where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans in?
Paris Saint Germain: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded). Le Mans: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for Le Mans and 0 draws. The most recent ended Le Mans 0-2 Paris Saint Germain (Feb 4, 2025).
How is the Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.21 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.41 for Le Mans) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- All Le Mans predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology