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Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: 3-1 result and AI prediction review

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain3 – 1Le MansLe Mans

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Paris Saint Germain at 50%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.2%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (73%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): correct.

Match analysis

Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris. Before kick-off, our model gave Paris Saint Germain a 50% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Le Mans 30%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (8.3%), followed by 1-1 (7.4%) and 2-2 (7.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Paris Saint Germain have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Le Mans have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Paris Saint Germain therefore arrive in far better shape than Le Mans. On average Paris Saint Germain score 2.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Le Mans score 1.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Paris Saint Germain sit 6th with 8 points from 5 games, Le Mans 10th with 6 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Paris Saint Germain have averaged 1.64 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.31 for Le Mans.

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for Le Mans and 0 draws. The most recent ended Le Mans 0-2 Paris Saint Germain (Feb 4, 2025). Paris Saint Germain out or doubtful: O. Dembele, A. Longoni, S. Mayulu and N. Mendes. Le Mans: A. Bourabaa, E. Colas, T. Eyoum, E. Quarshie, M. Rossignol and D. Sidibe (suspended). In double chance terms, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" stands at 70%, "Le Mans or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 80%.

In short : Paris Saint Germain are favourites for this Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans, with a 50% win probability from our model. In the table, Paris Saint Germain (6th, 8 pts) host Le Mans (10th, 6 pts). One to watch: Le Mans will be without A. Bourabaa and E. Colas.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

50%
Paris Saint Germain (Win)
20%
Draw
30%
Le Mans (Win)

Double chance

70%
Paris Saint Germain or draw
50%
Le Mans or draw
80%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Paris Saint Germain – Le Mans. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 35% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Le Mans8.3%
Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Le Mans7.4%
Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Le Mans7.1%
Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Le Mans6.3%
Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans6.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.23 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.70 for Le Mans, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 75% and "both teams to score" at 73%. Goals look likely in this one. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Le Mans in 11%.

Probability
Paris Saint Germain expected goals2.23
Le Mans expected goals1.70
Both teams to score73%
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet18%
Le Mans clean sheet11%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Paris Saint Germain

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Marseille · Ligue 12-1W
Sep 13, 2026Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 11-0W
Sep 9, 2026Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League6-1W
Sep 4, 2026Monaco · Ligue 11-2L
Aug 28, 2026Lille · Ligue 12-2D

Le Mans

DateOpponentScore
Oct 2, 2026Guingamp · Club Friendlies1-2L
Sep 19, 2026Lorient · Ligue 12-1W
Sep 13, 2026Lens · Ligue 12-2D
Sep 5, 2026Nice · Ligue 11-1D
Aug 30, 2026Rennes · Ligue 12-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Paris Saint Germain685
Le Mans1065

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 4, 2025Le Mans 0-2 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France
Jul 14, 2021Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Le MansClub Friendlies
Dec 18, 2019Le Mans 1-4 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de la Ligue

Out and doubtful

Paris Saint Germain

  • O. Dembele (out)
  • A. Longoni (out)
  • S. Mayulu (out)
  • N. Mendes (out)

Le Mans

  • A. Bourabaa (out)
  • E. Colas (out)
  • T. Eyoum (out)
  • E. Quarshie (out)
  • M. Rossignol (out)
  • D. Sidibe (suspended)

Most regular starters

Paris Saint Germain

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Vitinha5/5
  • Marquinhos4/5
  • Achraf Hakimi3/5
  • Fabián Ruiz3/5
  • João Neves3/5
  • Matvey Safonov3/5
  • Warren Zaïre-Emery3/5
  • Willian Pacho3/5
  • Désiré Doué2/5
  • Ferran Torres2/5
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2/5

Le Mans

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Bourabaa4/4
  • H. Voyer4/4
  • L. Mafouta4/4
  • D. Gueye3/4
  • J. Vercruysse3/4
  • L. Bretelle3/4
  • L. Calodat3/4
  • N. Boisse3/4
  • R. Bamba3/4
  • A. Lauray2/4
  • E. Hatfout2/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Paris Saint Germain a 50% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Le Mans 30%. Paris Saint Germain are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?

2-1 (8.3%), followed by 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.1%), 1-2 (6.3%) and 3-1 (6.2%).

Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?

The probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans score is 73%. Paris Saint Germain have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Le Mans 11%.

How many goals should we expect in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?

The model expects 3.93 goals (2.23 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.70 for Le Mans). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 75%, over 3.5 goals 55%.

When and where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans played?

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris.

What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans in?

Paris Saint Germain: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded). Le Mans: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans?

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for Le Mans and 0 draws. The most recent ended Le Mans 0-2 Paris Saint Germain (Feb 4, 2025).

What was the Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Paris Saint Germain at 50%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (6.2%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (73%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): correct.

How is the Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.23 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.70 for Le Mans) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained