Ligue 1· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Lens vs Lyon: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lens 2-1 Lyon. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lens at 41%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
Match analysis
Lens and Lyon met on Friday, October 9, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. Before kick-off, our model gave Lens a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lyon 34%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (8.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lens have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Lyon are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Lyon therefore arrive in far better shape than Lens. On average Lens score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Lyon score 2.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Lens sit 15th with 4 points from 5 games, Lyon 2nd with 11 points from 5. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lens have averaged 1.43 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.96 for Lyon.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lens, 1 for Lyon and 2 draws. The most recent ended Lyon 0-4 Lens (May 17, 2026). Lens out or doubtful: J. Chavez, T. Hazard, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima and J. Todibo. Lyon: R. Himbert, M. Niakhate, M. Ouedraogo and N. Tagliafico. In double chance terms, "Lens or draw" stands at 66%, "Lyon or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Lens host Lyon in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (26%). On recent form, Lens have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Lyon have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lens – Lyon. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lens 1-1 Lyon | 12.2% |
| Lens 1-0 Lyon | 9.5% |
| Lens 2-1 Lyon | 8.7% |
| Lens 0-1 Lyon | 8.5% |
| Lens 1-2 Lyon | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.43 expected goals for Lens and 1.28 for Lyon, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Lens keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Lyon in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lens expected goals | 1.43 |
| Lyon expected goals | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Lens clean sheet | 28% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lens
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Standard Liege · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 15 | 4 | 5 |
| Lyon | 2 | 11 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Lyon 0-4 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Lyon 2-2 Lens | Coupe de France |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Lens 0-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2025 | Lyon 1-2 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Lens 0-0 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lens
- J. Chavez (out)
- T. Hazard (out)
- M. Nawrocki (out)
- A. Sima (out)
- J. Todibo (out)
Lyon
- R. Himbert (out)
- M. Niakhate (out)
- M. Ouedraogo (out)
- N. Tagliafico (out)
Most regular starters
Lens
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Sima4/4
- F. Thauvin4/4
- K. Antonio4/4
- M. Udol4/4
- R. Risser4/4
- A. Haidara3/4
- R. Aguilar3/4
- I. Ganiou2/4
- M. Cuisance2/4
- M. Skoras2/4
- A. Bulatovic1/4
Lyon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Corentin Tolisso3/5
- Dominik Greif3/5
- Ernest Nuamah3/5
- Felix Bacher3/5
- Loïs Openda3/5
- Mads Bidstrup3/5
- Moussa Niakhaté3/5
- Tyler Morton3/5
- Zachary Athekame3/5
- Abner Vinícius2/5
- L. Openda2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Lille 1-0 Le HavreOct 10, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 5-1 AngersOct 10, 2026
- Lorient 1-0 Paris FCOct 10, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le MansOct 10, 2026
- Monaco 2-2 ToulouseOct 10, 2026
- Nice 2-1 StrasbourgOct 11, 2026
- Rennes 4-1 AuxerreOct 11, 2026
- Estac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lens vs Lyon prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lens a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lyon 34%. Lens are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Lens vs Lyon?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (8.7%), 0-1 (8.5%) and 1-2 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Lens vs Lyon?
The probability that both Lens and Lyon score is 55%. Lens have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lyon 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Lens vs Lyon?
The model expects 2.71 goals (1.43 for Lens, 1.28 for Lyon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Lens vs Lyon played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens.
What form are Lens and Lyon in?
Lens: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Lyon: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Lyon?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lens, 1 for Lyon and 2 draws. The most recent ended Lyon 0-4 Lens (May 17, 2026).
What was the Lens vs Lyon result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lens 2-1 Lyon. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lens at 41%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
How is the Lens vs Lyon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.43 for Lens, 1.28 for Lyon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.