Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)
Lille vs Le Havre prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ligue 1, matchday 6: Lille vs Le Havre kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time). Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Our model makes Lille clear favourites: a 80% chance of winning, against 14% for the draw and 6% for Le Havre. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (14.3%), followed by 3-0 (12.0%) and 1-0 (11.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Le Havre have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Lille therefore arrive in far better shape than Le Havre. On average Lille score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Le Havre score 0.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Lille sit 4th with 10 points from 5 games, Le Havre 18th with 2 points from 5. 14 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lille have averaged 1.33 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.10 for Le Havre.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lille, 1 for Le Havre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lille 1-1 Le Havre (May 3, 2026). Lille out or doubtful: H. Igamane and T. Nianzou. Le Havre: P. Argney, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure and S. Zagadou. In double chance terms, "Lille or draw" stands at 94%, "Le Havre or draw" at 20% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Lille are favourites for this Lille v Le Havre, with a 80% win probability from our model. In the table, Lille (4th, 10 pts) host Le Havre (18th, 2 pts). One to watch: Le Havre will be without P. Argney and F. Mambimbi.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lille – Le Havre. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lille 2-0 Le Havre | 14.3% |
| Lille 3-0 Le Havre | 12.0% |
| Lille 1-0 Le Havre | 11.3% |
| Lille 2-1 Le Havre | 8.3% |
| Lille 4-0 Le Havre | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.53 expected goals for Lille and 0.58 for Le Havre, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 60% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Goals look likely in this one. Lille keep a clean sheet in 56% of scenarios, Le Havre in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lille expected goals | 2.53 |
| Le Havre expected goals | 0.58 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Lille clean sheet | 56% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Le Havre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| Le Havre | 18 | 2 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Lille 1-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Le Havre 0-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Lille 1-2 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Le Havre 0-3 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Lille 3-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
- T. Nianzou (out)
Le Havre
- P. Argney (out)
- F. Mambimbi (out)
- L. Mpasi-Nzau (out)
- T. Pembele (out)
- A. Toure (out)
- S. Zagadou (out)
Most regular starters
Lille
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Alexsandro Ribeiro4/5
- Tiago Santos4/5
- Berke Özer3/5
- Hakon Arnar Haraldsson3/5
- Nabil Bentaleb3/5
- Nathan Ngoy3/5
- A. Ueda2/5
- Benjamin André2/5
- Ethan Mbappé2/5
- H. Haraldsson2/5
- N. Bentaleb2/5
Le Havre
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Ally Samatta4/5
- Amir Richardson4/5
- Ayumu Seko4/5
- Simon Ebonog4/5
- Ahmed Touba3/5
- Junior Mwanga3/5
- Lionel Mpasi Nzau3/5
- Rassoul Ndiaye3/5
- Timothee Pembele3/5
- Djibril Ouziad2/5
- Elias Jelert2/5
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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lille vs Le Havre prediction?
Our AI gives Lille a 80% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Le Havre 6%. Lille are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lille vs Le Havre?
2-0 (14.3%), followed by 3-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (8.3%) and 4-0 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Lille vs Le Havre?
The probability that both Lille and Le Havre score is 41%. Lille have a 56% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Le Havre 8%.
How many goals should we expect in Lille vs Le Havre?
The model expects 3.11 goals (2.53 for Lille, 0.58 for Le Havre). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Lille vs Le Havre played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille.
What form are Lille and Le Havre in?
Lille: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Le Havre: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Le Havre?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lille, 1 for Le Havre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lille 1-1 Le Havre (May 3, 2026).
How is the Lille vs Le Havre prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.53 for Lille, 0.58 for Le Havre) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.