Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)
Lille vs Le Havre: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lille 1-0 Le Havre. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lille at 77%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): missed.
Match analysis
Lille and Le Havre met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Before kick-off, our model gave Lille a 77% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Le Havre 8%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.4%), followed by 3-0 (10.5%) and 1-0 (9.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Le Havre have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 7. Lille therefore arrive in far better shape than Le Havre. On average Lille score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Le Havre score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Lille sit 4th with 10 points from 5 games, Le Havre 18th with 2 points from 5. 14 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lille have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.35 for Le Havre.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lille, 1 for Le Havre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lille 1-1 Le Havre (May 3, 2026). Lille out or doubtful: H. Igamane. Le Havre: F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou and E. Jelert (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Lille or draw" stands at 92%, "Le Havre or draw" at 23% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Lille are favourites for this Lille v Le Havre, with a 77% win probability from our model. In the table, Lille (4th, 10 pts) host Le Havre (18th, 2 pts). One to watch: Le Havre will be without F. Mambimbi and L. Mpasi-Nzau.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lille – Le Havre. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lille 2-0 Le Havre | 12.4% |
| Lille 3-0 Le Havre | 10.5% |
| Lille 1-0 Le Havre | 9.8% |
| Lille 2-1 Le Havre | 8.9% |
| Lille 3-1 Le Havre | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.54 expected goals for Lille and 0.72 for Le Havre, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 63% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Goals look likely in this one. Lille keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Le Havre in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lille expected goals | 2.54 |
| Le Havre expected goals | 0.72 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Lille clean sheet | 49% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Zulte Waregem · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
Le Havre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Boulogne · Club Friendlies | 6-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| Le Havre | 18 | 2 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Lille 1-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Le Havre 0-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Lille 1-2 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Le Havre 0-3 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Lille 3-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
Le Havre
- F. Mambimbi (out)
- L. Mpasi-Nzau (out)
- T. Pembele (out)
- A. Toure (out)
- S. Zagadou (out)
- E. Jelert (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Lille
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- Alexsandro4/4
- B. Ozer4/4
- H. Haraldsson4/4
- N. Bentaleb4/4
- N. Ngoy4/4
- T. Santos4/4
- A. Ueda3/4
- B. Andre3/4
- E. Mbappe3/4
- R. Perraud3/4
- B. Onal2/4
Le Havre
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Richardson4/5
- A. Samatta4/5
- A. Seko4/5
- A. Touba4/5
- J. Maja4/5
- S. Ebonog4/5
- D. Ouziad3/5
- E. Jelert3/5
- G. Gallon3/5
- J. Mwanga3/5
- K. Mizuta3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Lens 2-1 LyonOct 9, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 5-1 AngersOct 10, 2026
- Lorient 1-0 Paris FCOct 10, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le MansOct 10, 2026
- Monaco 2-2 ToulouseOct 10, 2026
- Nice 2-1 StrasbourgOct 11, 2026
- Rennes 4-1 AuxerreOct 11, 2026
- Estac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lille vs Le Havre prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lille a 77% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Le Havre 8%. Lille are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Lille vs Le Havre?
2-0 (12.4%), followed by 3-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (8.9%) and 3-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Lille vs Le Havre?
The probability that both Lille and Le Havre score is 47%. Lille have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Le Havre 8%.
How many goals should we expect in Lille vs Le Havre?
The model expects 3.26 goals (2.54 for Lille, 0.72 for Le Havre). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 63%, over 3.5 goals 41%.
When and where is Lille vs Le Havre played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille.
What form are Lille and Le Havre in?
Lille: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Le Havre: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Le Havre?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lille, 1 for Le Havre and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lille 1-1 Le Havre (May 3, 2026).
What was the Lille vs Le Havre result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lille 1-0 Le Havre. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lille at 77%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): missed.
How is the Lille vs Le Havre prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.54 for Lille, 0.72 for Le Havre) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.