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Ligue 1Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Lorient vs Paris FC prediction: correct score and AI tips

LorientLorient–Paris FCParis FC

Match analysis

Ligue 1, matchday 6: the Lorient vs Paris FC match is scheduled on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient. Our model makes Paris FC clear favourites: a 78% chance of winning, against 13% for the draw and 9% for Lorient. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (8.8%), followed by 0-3 (8.7%) and 1-2 (8.4%).

Lorient have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 6. Paris FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 3. Paris FC therefore arrive in far better shape than Lorient. On average Lorient score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Paris FC score 1.60 and concede 0.60. In the table, Lorient sit 12th with 5 points from 5 games, Paris FC 3rd with 11 points from 5. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lorient have averaged 1.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.09 for Paris FC.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lorient, 2 for Paris FC and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lorient 1-1 Paris FC (Apr 5, 2026). Lorient out or doubtful: B. Fadiga and N. Mbamba. Paris FC: E. Mbemba, Otavio and N. Sangui. In double chance terms, "Lorient or draw" stands at 22%, "Paris FC or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 87%.

In short : Our model backs Paris FC to edge Lorient (78% probability). In the table, Lorient (12th, 5 pts) host Paris FC (3rd, 11 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 75%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

9%
Lorient (Win)
13%
Draw
78%
Paris FC (Win)

Double chance

22%
Lorient or draw
91%
Paris FC or draw
87%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Lorient – Paris FC. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Lorient 0-2 Paris FC8.8%
Lorient 0-3 Paris FC8.7%
Lorient 1-2 Paris FC8.4%
Lorient 1-3 Paris FC8.2%
Lorient 0-4 Paris FC6.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.95 expected goals for Lorient and 2.94 for Paris FC, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 75% and "both teams to score" at 58%. Goals look likely in this one. Lorient keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Paris FC in 39%.

Probability
Lorient expected goals0.95
Paris FC expected goals2.94
Both teams to score58%
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Lorient clean sheet5%
Paris FC clean sheet39%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Lorient

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Le Mans · Ligue 11-2L
Sep 12, 2026Toulouse · Ligue 12-2D
Sep 5, 2026Lens · Ligue 11-0W
Aug 29, 2026Estac Troyes · Ligue 11-2L
Aug 22, 2026Nice · Ligue 10-0D

Paris FC

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Strasbourg · Ligue 12-1W
Sep 12, 2026Lyon · Ligue 10-0D
Sep 6, 2026Marseille · Ligue 13-2W
Aug 30, 2026Nice · Ligue 13-0W
Aug 22, 2026Estac Troyes · Ligue 10-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Lorient1255
Paris FC3115

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 5, 2026Lorient 1-1 Paris FCLigue 1
Feb 4, 2026Lorient 2-0 Paris FCCoupe de France
Oct 3, 2025Paris FC 2-0 LorientLigue 1
Mar 8, 2025Paris FC 3-2 LorientLigue 2
Dec 14, 2024Lorient 2-0 Paris FCLigue 2

Out and doubtful

Lorient

  • B. Fadiga (out)
  • N. Mbamba (out)

Paris FC

  • E. Mbemba (out)
  • Otavio (out)
  • N. Sangui (out)

Most regular starters

Lorient

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Arsène Kouassi4/5
  • Dembo Sylla4/5
  • Gabin Bernardeau4/5
  • Jean Victor Makengo4/5
  • Montassar Talbi4/5
  • Nathaniel Adjei4/5
  • Noah Cadiou4/5
  • Yvon Mvogo4/5
  • Mamadou Koné3/5
  • Arthur Avom Ebong2/5
  • Noah Mbamba2/5

Paris FC

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Adama Camara4/5
  • Diego Coppola4/5
  • Ilan Kebbal4/5
  • Kevin Trapp4/5
  • Lassine Sinayoko4/5
  • Pablo Pagis4/5
  • Pierre Lees Melou4/5
  • Luca Koleosho3/5
  • Maxime López3/5
  • Samir Chergui3/5
  • Hamari Traoré2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Lorient vs Paris FC prediction?

Our AI gives Lorient a 9% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Paris FC 78%. Paris FC are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Lorient vs Paris FC?

0-2 (8.8%), followed by 0-3 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.4%), 1-3 (8.2%) and 0-4 (6.4%).

Will both teams score in Lorient vs Paris FC?

The probability that both Lorient and Paris FC score is 58%. Lorient have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paris FC 39%.

How many goals should we expect in Lorient vs Paris FC?

The model expects 3.89 goals (0.95 for Lorient, 2.94 for Paris FC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 75%, over 3.5 goals 55%.

When and where is Lorient vs Paris FC played?

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 6. Venue: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient.

What form are Lorient and Paris FC in?

Lorient: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). Paris FC: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Paris FC?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lorient, 2 for Paris FC and 1 draw. The most recent ended Lorient 1-1 Paris FC (Apr 5, 2026).

How is the Lorient vs Paris FC prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.95 for Lorient, 2.94 for Paris FC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained