Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Arsenal vs Leeds prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Arsenal take on Leeds on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), a Premier League, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London. With a 66% win probability, Arsenal go in as strong favourites against Leeds (18%), with the draw rated at 16%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (8.1%), ahead of 3-1 (7.6%) and 2-2 (5.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Arsenal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Leeds have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 9 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Arsenal. On average Arsenal score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Leeds score 1.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, Arsenal sit 2nd with 12 points from 5 games, Leeds 5th with 9 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Arsenal have averaged 2.05 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.98 for Leeds.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Leeds and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leeds 0-4 Arsenal (Jan 31, 2026). Arsenal out or doubtful: C. Mosquera, W. Saliba and B. White. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon and H. Wilson. In double chance terms, "Arsenal or draw" stands at 82%, "Leeds or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Arsenal are favourites for this Arsenal v Leeds, with a 66% win probability from our model. On recent form, Arsenal are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Leeds have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Arsenal will be without C. Mosquera and W. Saliba.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Arsenal – Leeds. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 2-1 Leeds | 8.1% |
| Arsenal 3-1 Leeds | 7.6% |
| Arsenal 2-2 Leeds | 5.9% |
| Arsenal 1-1 Leeds | 5.8% |
| Arsenal 2-0 Leeds | 5.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.25 goals in total (2.80 for Arsenal, 1.45 for Leeds): over 2.5 goals has a 80% probability and both teams to score 72%. Everything points to an open game. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Leeds in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Arsenal expected goals | 2.80 |
| Leeds expected goals | 1.45 |
| Both teams to score | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 24% |
| Leeds clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich · EFL Cup | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Napoli · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
Leeds
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle · Premier League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea · EFL Cup | 3-6 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2 | 12 | 5 |
| Leeds | 5 | 9 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Leeds 0-4 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Arsenal 5-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Arsenal 4-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Leeds 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| May 8, 2022 | Arsenal 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Arsenal
- C. Mosquera (out)
- W. Saliba (out)
- B. White (out)
Leeds
- M. Joseph (out)
- J. Rodon (out)
- H. Wilson (out)
Most regular starters
Arsenal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Saka4/5
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Konsa4/5
- B. White3/5
- C. Tzolis3/5
- D. Raya3/5
- Gabriel3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- M. Lewis-Skelly3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- R. Calafiori3/5
Leeds
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Ampadu5/5
- J. Justin5/5
- A. Stach4/5
- D. Calvert-Lewin4/5
- J. Bogle4/5
- J. Trafford4/5
- N. Okafor4/5
- T. Muharemovic4/5
- A. Tanaka3/5
- G. Gudmundsson3/5
- N. Elvedi3/5
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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Sunderland – BrightonOct 10, 2026
- Chelsea – BournemouthOct 10, 2026
- Aston Villa – BrentfordOct 10, 2026
- Ipswich – FulhamOct 10, 2026
- Manchester United – TottenhamOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Arsenal vs Leeds prediction?
Our AI gives Arsenal a 66% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Leeds 18%. Arsenal are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Arsenal vs Leeds?
2-1 (8.1%), followed by 3-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (5.9%), 1-1 (5.8%) and 2-0 (5.6%).
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The probability that both Arsenal and Leeds score is 72%. Arsenal have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Leeds 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model expects 4.25 goals (2.80 for Arsenal, 1.45 for Leeds). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 61%.
When and where is Arsenal vs Leeds played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 6. Venue: Emirates Stadium, London.
What form are Arsenal and Leeds in?
Arsenal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Leeds: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Leeds?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Leeds and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leeds 0-4 Arsenal (Jan 31, 2026).
How is the Arsenal vs Leeds prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.80 for Arsenal, 1.45 for Leeds) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Arsenal predictions
- All Leeds predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology