Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Manchester United vs Tottenham: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Manchester United (52%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (12.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
Match analysis
Manchester United and Tottenham met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester. Before kick-off, our model gave Manchester United a 52% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Tottenham 21%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.3%) and 2-0 (10.8%).
Manchester United have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Tottenham have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Manchester United score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Tottenham score 0.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Manchester United sit 12th with 5 points from 5 games, Tottenham 20th with 2 points from 5. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Manchester United have averaged 1.10 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.09 for Tottenham.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 3 for Tottenham and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham (Feb 7, 2026). Manchester United out or doubtful: M. Ugarte, M. de Ligt, K. Darlow (doubtful), A. Diallo (doubtful), P. Dorgu (doubtful), T. Heaton (doubtful), K. Mainoo (doubtful) and N. Mazraoui (doubtful). Tottenham: M. Mudryk, W. Odobert, P. Porro, X. Simons and D. Kulusevski (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Manchester United or draw" stands at 79%, "Tottenham or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Manchester United are favourites for this Manchester United v Tottenham, with a 52% win probability from our model. In the table, Manchester United (12th, 5 pts) host Tottenham (20th, 2 pts). One to watch: Manchester United will be without M. Ugarte and M. de Ligt.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Manchester United – Tottenham. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester United 1-0 Tottenham | 14.8% |
| Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham | 12.3% |
| Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham | 10.8% |
| Manchester United 0-0 Tottenham | 10.2% |
| Manchester United 2-1 Tottenham | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.45 expected goals for Manchester United and 0.83 for Tottenham, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 40% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Few goals are expected here. Manchester United keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Tottenham in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Manchester United expected goals | 1.45 |
| Tottenham expected goals | 0.83 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 44% |
| Tottenham clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton · EFL Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
Tottenham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aston Villa · Premier League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Liverpool · EFL Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Newcastle · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 12 | 5 | 5 |
| Tottenham | 20 | 2 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Tottenham 2-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| May 21, 2025 | Tottenham 1-0 Manchester United | UEFA Europa League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Tottenham 1-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Tottenham 4-3 Manchester United | EFL Cup |
Out and doubtful
Manchester United
- M. Ugarte (out)
- M. de Ligt (out)
- K. Darlow (doubtful)
- A. Diallo (doubtful)
- P. Dorgu (doubtful)
- T. Heaton (doubtful)
- K. Mainoo (doubtful)
- N. Mazraoui (doubtful)
Tottenham
- M. Mudryk (out)
- W. Odobert (out)
- P. Porro (out)
- X. Simons (out)
- D. Kulusevski (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Manchester United
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Y. Tielemans5/5
- B. Mbeumo4/5
- K. Mainoo4/5
- M. Rashford4/5
- S. Lammens4/5
- H. Maguire3/5
- B. Fernandes2/5
- B. Šeško2/5
- Bruno Fernandes2/5
- D. Dalot2/5
- Diogo Dalot2/5
Tottenham
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Bentancur5/5
- M. van de Ven4/5
- S. Tonali4/5
- A. Gray3/5
- A. Kinsky3/5
- A. Robertson3/5
- J. P. van Hecke3/5
- M. Tel3/5
- O. Marmoush3/5
- C. Gallagher2/5
- D. Solanke2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Arsenal 2-1 LeedsOct 10, 2026
- Sunderland 0-2 BrightonOct 10, 2026
- Chelsea 5-1 BournemouthOct 10, 2026
- Aston Villa 2-2 BrentfordOct 10, 2026
- Ipswich 2-1 FulhamOct 10, 2026
- Hull City 2-2 EvertonOct 11, 2026
- Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham ForestOct 11, 2026
- Liverpool 0-3 Manchester CityOct 11, 2026
- Coventry 4-1 NewcastleOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Manchester United vs Tottenham prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Manchester United a 52% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Tottenham 21%. Manchester United are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Manchester United vs Tottenham?
1-0 (14.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Tottenham?
The probability that both Manchester United and Tottenham score is 43%. Manchester United have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Tottenham 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Manchester United vs Tottenham?
The model expects 2.28 goals (1.45 for Manchester United, 0.83 for Tottenham). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Manchester United vs Tottenham played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 6. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester.
What form are Manchester United and Tottenham in?
Manchester United: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Tottenham: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Tottenham?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 3 for Tottenham and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham (Feb 7, 2026).
What was the Manchester United vs Tottenham result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Manchester United (52%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (12.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
How is the Manchester United vs Tottenham prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.45 for Manchester United, 0.83 for Tottenham) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Manchester United predictions
- All Tottenham predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology