Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)

Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction: correct score and AI tips

Chelsea–Bournemouth

Match analysis

Chelsea take on Bournemouth on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), a Premier League, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Stamford Bridge, London. With a 76% win probability, Chelsea go in as strong favourites against Bournemouth (9%), with the draw rated at 15%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.5%), ahead of 3-0 (10.4%) and 1-0 (10.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Chelsea score 2.60 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Bournemouth score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Chelsea sit 10th with 7 points from 5 games, Bournemouth 17th with 3 points from 5. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Chelsea have averaged 1.66 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.08 for Bournemouth.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Chelsea, 0 for Bournemouth and 3 draws. The most recent ended Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth (Dec 30, 2025). Chelsea out or doubtful: M. Caicedo, E. Emegha, Joao Pedro and M. Palestra. Bournemouth: A. Adli, J. Araujo, J. Kluivert, E. J. Kroupi and V. Milosavljevic. In double chance terms, "Chelsea or draw" stands at 91%, "Bournemouth or draw" at 24% and "no draw" at 85%.

In short : Our model backs Chelsea to edge Bournemouth (76% probability). On recent form, Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 62%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

Double chance

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Chelsea – Bournemouth. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.20 goals in total (2.48 for Chelsea, 0.72 for Bournemouth): over 2.5 goals has a 62% probability and both teams to score 47%. Everything points to an open game. Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Bournemouth in 8%.

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Standings before the match

Head-to-head

Out and doubtful

Most regular starters

Other matches in this competition

• Arsenal – LeedsOct 10, 2026
• Sunderland – BrightonOct 10, 2026
• Aston Villa – BrentfordOct 10, 2026
• Ipswich – FulhamOct 10, 2026
• Manchester United – TottenhamOct 10, 2026

Frequently asked questions

Go further

• All Chelsea predictions
• All Bournemouth predictions
• Premier League predictions
• Today’s predictions
• Our methodology

Key terms explained

• Correct score
• 1X2 (match result)
• Double chance
• BTTS (both teams to score)
• Over/Under (total goals)
• Poisson distribution
• Recent form
• xG (Expected Goals)
• Head-to-head (H2H)