Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Chelsea vs Bournemouth: 5-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Chelsea was the model's favourite outcome (76%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): correct.
Match analysis
Chelsea vs Bournemouth was played on Saturday, October 10, 2026 (Premier League, matchday 6). Venue: Stamford Bridge, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Chelsea a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Bournemouth 9%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.5%), ahead of 3-0 (10.4%) and 1-0 (10.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Chelsea score 2.60 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Bournemouth score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Chelsea sit 10th with 7 points from 5 games, Bournemouth 17th with 3 points from 5. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Chelsea have averaged 1.66 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.08 for Bournemouth.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Chelsea, 0 for Bournemouth and 3 draws. The most recent ended Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth (Dec 30, 2025). Chelsea out or doubtful: J. Gittens and E. Emegha (doubtful). Bournemouth: A. Adli, J. Araujo, J. Kluivert, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic, A. Scott and D. Brooks (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Chelsea or draw" stands at 91%, "Bournemouth or draw" at 24% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Our model backs Chelsea to edge Bournemouth (76% probability). On recent form, Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 62%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Chelsea – Bournemouth. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Chelsea 2-0 Bournemouth | 12.5% |
| Chelsea 3-0 Bournemouth | 10.4% |
| Chelsea 1-0 Bournemouth | 10.1% |
| Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth | 9.0% |
| Chelsea 3-1 Bournemouth | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.20 goals in total (2.48 for Chelsea, 0.72 for Bournemouth): over 2.5 goals has a 62% probability and both teams to score 47%. Everything points to an open game. Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Bournemouth in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Chelsea expected goals | 2.48 |
| Bournemouth expected goals | 0.72 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 49% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Chelsea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds · EFL Cup | 6-3 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arsenal · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 4-3 | W |
Bournemouth
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln · EFL Cup | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Newcastle · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 17 | 3 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Bournemouth 0-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Bournemouth 0-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 19, 2024 | Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Chelsea
- J. Gittens (out)
- E. Emegha (doubtful)
Bournemouth
- A. Adli (out)
- J. Araujo (out)
- J. Kluivert (out)
- E. J. Kroupi (out)
- V. Milosavljevic (out)
- A. Scott (out)
- D. Brooks (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Chelsea
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Palmer4/5
- L. Colwill4/5
- M. Lacroix4/5
- M. Rogers4/5
- W. Fofana4/5
- E. Martinez3/5
- J. Hato3/5
- Joao Pedro3/5
- M. Gusto3/5
- P. Neto3/5
- R. Lavia3/5
Bournemouth
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Hill5/5
- A. Scott4/5
- A. Smith4/5
- A. Truffert4/5
- Evanilson4/5
- J. Kluivert4/5
- M. Tavernier4/5
- Rayan4/5
- T. Adams4/5
- A. Silva3/5
- António Silva2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Arsenal 2-1 LeedsOct 10, 2026
- Sunderland 0-2 BrightonOct 10, 2026
- Aston Villa 2-2 BrentfordOct 10, 2026
- Ipswich 2-1 FulhamOct 10, 2026
- Manchester United 1-1 TottenhamOct 10, 2026
- Hull City 2-2 EvertonOct 11, 2026
- Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham ForestOct 11, 2026
- Liverpool 0-3 Manchester CityOct 11, 2026
- Coventry 4-1 NewcastleOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Chelsea a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Bournemouth 9%. Chelsea are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
2-0 (12.5%), followed by 3-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.0%) and 3-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The probability that both Chelsea and Bournemouth score is 47%. Chelsea have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bournemouth 8%.
How many goals should we expect in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model expects 3.20 goals (2.48 for Chelsea, 0.72 for Bournemouth). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.
When and where is Chelsea vs Bournemouth played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 6. Venue: Stamford Bridge, London.
What form are Chelsea and Bournemouth in?
Chelsea: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 13 conceded). Bournemouth: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Bournemouth?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Chelsea, 0 for Bournemouth and 3 draws. The most recent ended Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth (Dec 30, 2025).
What was the Chelsea vs Bournemouth result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Chelsea was the model's favourite outcome (76%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): correct.
How is the Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.48 for Chelsea, 0.72 for Bournemouth) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Chelsea predictions
- All Bournemouth predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology