Premier League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)
Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Premier League, matchday 6: the Liverpool vs Manchester City match is scheduled on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time). Venue: Anfield, Liverpool. The edge goes to Manchester City (58%), ahead of the draw (20%) and a Liverpool win (22%). The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.6%), ahead of 1-1 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.6%).
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 8 and conceding 2. Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Liverpool score 1.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Manchester City score 2.80 and concede 0.60. In the table, Liverpool sit 6th with 9 points from 5 games, Manchester City 1st with 15 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Liverpool have averaged 1.32 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.09 for Manchester City.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Liverpool, 3 for Manchester City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Manchester City 4-0 Liverpool (Apr 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Liverpool or draw" stands at 42%, "Manchester City or draw" at 78% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Manchester City are favourites for this Liverpool v Manchester City, with a 58% win probability from our model. In the table, Liverpool (6th, 9 pts) host Manchester City (1st, 15 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Liverpool – Manchester City. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City | 9.6% |
| Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City | 8.8% |
| Liverpool 0-2 Manchester City | 7.6% |
| Liverpool 0-1 Manchester City | 7.0% |
| Liverpool 1-3 Manchester City | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.44 goals in total (1.26 for Liverpool, 2.18 for Manchester City): over 2.5 goals has a 67% probability and both teams to score 64%. Everything points to an open game. Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Manchester City in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Liverpool expected goals | 1.26 |
| Manchester City expected goals | 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 11% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Liverpool
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Tottenham · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
Manchester City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 5-3 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Norwich · EFL Cup | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester United · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | FC Porto · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 6 | 9 | 5 |
| Manchester City | 1 | 15 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Manchester City 4-0 Liverpool | FA Cup |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Manchester City 3-0 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Manchester City 0-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Liverpool 2-0 Manchester City | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Liverpool
No absences reported.
Manchester City
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Liverpool
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak4/5
- A. Mac Allister4/5
- D. Szoboszlai4/5
- F. Wirtz4/5
- J. Jacquet4/5
- M. Kerkez4/5
- V. van Dijk4/5
- Alisson3/5
- B. Barcola3/5
- C. Gakpo3/5
- R. Araujo3/5
Manchester City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Cherki5/5
- A. Semenyo4/5
- E. Haaland4/5
- G. Donnarumma4/5
- J. Gvardiol4/5
- E. Anderson3/5
- E. Fernandez3/5
- M. Guehi3/5
- R. Dias3/5
- A. Bouaddi2/5
- A. Khusanov2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Arsenal – LeedsOct 10, 2026
- Sunderland – BrightonOct 10, 2026
- Chelsea – BournemouthOct 10, 2026
- Aston Villa – BrentfordOct 10, 2026
- Ipswich – FulhamOct 10, 2026
- Manchester United – TottenhamOct 10, 2026
- Hull City – EvertonOct 11, 2026
- Crystal Palace – Nottingham ForestOct 11, 2026
- Coventry – NewcastleOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction?
Our AI gives Liverpool a 22% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Manchester City 58%. Manchester City are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Liverpool vs Manchester City?
1-2 (9.6%), followed by 1-1 (8.8%), 0-2 (7.6%), 0-1 (7.0%) and 1-3 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The probability that both Liverpool and Manchester City score is 64%. Liverpool have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester City 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The model expects 3.44 goals (1.26 for Liverpool, 2.18 for Manchester City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Liverpool vs Manchester City played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 6. Venue: Anfield, Liverpool.
What form are Liverpool and Manchester City in?
Liverpool: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded). Manchester City: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Manchester City?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Liverpool, 3 for Manchester City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Manchester City 4-0 Liverpool (Apr 4, 2026).
How is the Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.26 for Liverpool, 2.18 for Manchester City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Liverpool predictions
- All Manchester City predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology