Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Sunderland vs Brighton prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Premier League, matchday 6: Sunderland vs Brighton kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland. With a 63% win probability, Brighton go in as strong favourites against Sunderland (21%), with the draw rated at 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-3 (6.4%), ahead of 1-2 (6.2%) and 2-3 (6.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sunderland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Brighton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Brighton. On average Sunderland score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Brighton score 3.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Sunderland sit 14th with 4 points from 5 games, Brighton 3rd with 10 points from 5. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Sunderland have averaged 2.73 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.14 for Brighton.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sunderland, 2 for Brighton and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sunderland 0-1 Brighton (Mar 14, 2026). Sunderland out or doubtful: H. Diarra, R. Mandava (suspended) and R. Mundle. Brighton: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson, J. Hinshelwood, Y. Minteh, K. Mitoma, S. Tzimas, M. Wieffer and Z. Yohanna. In double chance terms, "Sunderland or draw" stands at 37%, "Brighton or draw" at 79% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Brighton are tipped by our AI model in this Sunderland v Brighton (63%). On recent form, Sunderland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Brighton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sunderland – Brighton. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (6.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sunderland 1-3 Brighton | 6.4% |
| Sunderland 1-2 Brighton | 6.2% |
| Sunderland 2-3 Brighton | 6.0% |
| Sunderland 2-2 Brighton | 5.8% |
| Sunderland 1-4 Brighton | 5.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.99 goals in total (1.88 for Sunderland, 3.11 for Brighton): over 2.5 goals has a 88% probability and both teams to score 81%. Everything points to an open game. Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Brighton in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sunderland expected goals | 1.88 |
| Brighton expected goals | 3.11 |
| Both teams to score | 81% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 73% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 5% |
| Brighton clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sunderland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 3-5 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arsenal · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Hull City · EFL Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
Brighton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arsenal · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Manchester United · EFL Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 3-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 14 | 4 | 5 |
| Brighton | 3 | 10 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Sunderland 0-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Brighton 0-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Aug 23, 2011 | Brighton 1-0 Sunderland | EFL Cup |
Out and doubtful
Sunderland
- H. Diarra (out)
- R. Mandava (suspended)
- R. Mundle (out)
Brighton
- F. Azeez (out)
- E. Ferguson (out)
- J. Hinshelwood (out)
- Y. Minteh (out)
- K. Mitoma (out)
- S. Tzimas (out)
- M. Wieffer (out)
- Z. Yohanna (out)
Most regular starters
Sunderland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Xhaka4/5
- K. Danso4/5
- N. Mukiele4/5
- N. Sadiki4/5
- R. Roefs4/5
- B. Brobbey3/5
- D. Ballard3/5
- E. Le Fee3/5
- N. Angulo3/5
- R. Mandava3/5
- T. Meunier3/5
Brighton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Kostoulas5/5
- O. Boscagli5/5
- B. Verbruggen4/5
- M. De Cuyper4/5
- D. Gomez3/5
- F. Kadioglu3/5
- L. Dunk3/5
- L. Vuskovic3/5
- M. Yalcouye3/5
- P. Gross3/5
- Y. Ayari3/5
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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Arsenal – LeedsOct 10, 2026
- Chelsea – BournemouthOct 10, 2026
- Aston Villa – BrentfordOct 10, 2026
- Ipswich – FulhamOct 10, 2026
- Manchester United – TottenhamOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sunderland vs Brighton prediction?
Our AI gives Sunderland a 21% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Brighton 63%. Brighton are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sunderland vs Brighton?
1-3 (6.4%), followed by 1-2 (6.2%), 2-3 (6.0%), 2-2 (5.8%) and 1-4 (5.0%).
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Brighton?
The probability that both Sunderland and Brighton score is 81%. Sunderland have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Brighton 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Sunderland vs Brighton?
The model expects 4.99 goals (1.88 for Sunderland, 3.11 for Brighton). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 88%, over 3.5 goals 73%.
When and where is Sunderland vs Brighton played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 6. Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland.
What form are Sunderland and Brighton in?
Sunderland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Brighton: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Brighton?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sunderland, 2 for Brighton and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sunderland 0-1 Brighton (Mar 14, 2026).
How is the Sunderland vs Brighton prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.88 for Sunderland, 3.11 for Brighton) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sunderland predictions
- All Brighton predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology