Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Aston Villa vs Brentford: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Aston Villa (51%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (7.0%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (77%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.
Match analysis
Aston Villa and Brentford met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Premier League, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham. Before kick-off, our model gave Aston Villa a 51% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Brentford 30%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (7.4%), followed by 2-2 (7.0%) and 3-1 (6.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Aston Villa have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Aston Villa score 2.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Brentford score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Aston Villa sit 16th with 4 points from 5 games, Brentford 4th with 9 points from 5. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Aston Villa have averaged 3.22 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.44 for Brentford.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Aston Villa, 2 for Brentford and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford (Feb 1, 2026). Aston Villa out or doubtful: I. Maatsen, A. Onana and L. Goretzka (doubtful). Brentford: K. Furo, M. Jensen, S. van den Berg, N. Collins (doubtful), M. Damsgaard (doubtful), J. Dasilva (doubtful) and D. Ouattara (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Aston Villa or draw" stands at 70%, "Brentford or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Aston Villa are favourites for this Aston Villa v Brentford, with a 51% win probability from our model. On recent form, Aston Villa are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Brentford have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. One to watch: Brentford will be without K. Furo and M. Jensen.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aston Villa – Brentford. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 2-1 Brentford | 7.4% |
| Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford | 7.0% |
| Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford | 6.1% |
| Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford | 6.0% |
| Aston Villa 3-2 Brentford | 5.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.47 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.87 for Brentford, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 81% and "both teams to score" at 77%. Goals look likely in this one. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, Brentford in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa expected goals | 2.47 |
| Brentford expected goals | 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 15% |
| Brentford clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Aston Villa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry · EFL Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
Brentford
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Reading · EFL Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 16 | 4 | 5 |
| Brentford | 4 | 9 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2025 | Brentford 1-1 Aston Villa | EFL Cup |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Brentford 1-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Brentford 0-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Aston Villa
- I. Maatsen (out)
- A. Onana (out)
- L. Goretzka (doubtful)
Brentford
- K. Furo (out)
- M. Jensen (out)
- S. van den Berg (out)
- N. Collins (doubtful)
- M. Damsgaard (doubtful)
- J. Dasilva (doubtful)
- D. Ouattara (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Aston Villa
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Wan-Bissaka4/4
- B. Kamara3/4
- E. Buendia3/4
- J. McGinn3/4
- N. Jackson3/4
- V. Lindelof3/4
- Z. Suzuki3/4
- G. Hemmings2/4
- I. Maatsen2/4
- Joao Gomes2/4
- M. Ruggeri2/4
Brentford
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Ajer5/5
- K. Lewis-Potter5/5
- C. Kelleher4/5
- K. Schade4/5
- M. Damsgaard4/5
- M. Kayode4/5
- V. Janelt4/5
- I. Thiago3/5
- J. Anthony3/5
- M. Sangare3/5
- D. Ouattara2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Arsenal 2-1 LeedsOct 10, 2026
- Sunderland 0-2 BrightonOct 10, 2026
- Chelsea 5-1 BournemouthOct 10, 2026
- Ipswich 2-1 FulhamOct 10, 2026
- Manchester United 1-1 TottenhamOct 10, 2026
- Hull City 2-2 EvertonOct 11, 2026
- Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham ForestOct 11, 2026
- Liverpool 0-3 Manchester CityOct 11, 2026
- Coventry 4-1 NewcastleOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Aston Villa a 51% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Brentford 30%. Aston Villa are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
2-1 (7.4%), followed by 2-2 (7.0%), 3-1 (6.1%), 1-1 (6.0%) and 3-2 (5.7%).
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The probability that both Aston Villa and Brentford score is 77%. Aston Villa have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Brentford 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The model expects 4.34 goals (2.47 for Aston Villa, 1.87 for Brentford). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 81%, over 3.5 goals 63%.
When and where is Aston Villa vs Brentford played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 6. Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham.
What form are Aston Villa and Brentford in?
Aston Villa: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 8 conceded). Brentford: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Brentford?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Aston Villa, 2 for Brentford and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford (Feb 1, 2026).
What was the Aston Villa vs Brentford result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Aston Villa (51%), while a draw was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (7.0%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (77%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (81%): correct.
How is the Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.47 for Aston Villa, 1.87 for Brentford) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aston Villa predictions
- All Brentford predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology