Premier League· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Coventry vs Newcastle prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Premier League, matchday 6: the Coventry vs Newcastle match is scheduled on Monday, October 12, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry. It is a tight call: 34% for Coventry, 31% for the draw and 35% for Newcastle. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (14.4%), followed by 0-1 (14.1%) and 1-0 (13.8%).
Coventry have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Newcastle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Newcastle therefore arrive in far better shape than Coventry. On average Coventry score 0.40 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Newcastle score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Coventry sit 18th with 3 points from 5 games, Newcastle 9th with 8 points from 5. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Coventry have averaged 1.33 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.71 for Newcastle.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Coventry and Newcastle: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Coventry or draw" stands at 65%, "Newcastle or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 69%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Coventry and Newcastle: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Coventry are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Newcastle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Coventry – Newcastle. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Coventry 0-0 Newcastle | 14.4% |
| Coventry 0-1 Newcastle | 14.1% |
| Coventry 1-0 Newcastle | 13.8% |
| Coventry 1-1 Newcastle | 13.5% |
| Coventry 0-2 Newcastle | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.96 expected goals for Coventry and 0.98 for Newcastle, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 31% and "both teams to score" at 39%. Few goals are expected here. Coventry keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Newcastle in 38%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Coventry expected goals | 0.96 |
| Newcastle expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Coventry clean sheet | 38% |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 38% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Coventry
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Nottingham Forest · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Aston Villa · EFL Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
Newcastle
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall · EFL Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 18 | 3 | 5 |
| Newcastle | 9 | 8 | 5 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Coventry and Newcastle: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Coventry
No absences reported.
Newcastle
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Coventry
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Thomas5/5
- A. Amenda4/5
- C. Rushworth4/5
- E. Mason-Clark4/5
- J. Dasilva4/5
- J. Rudoni4/5
- M. Grimes4/5
- E. Pinnock3/5
- F. Onyeka3/5
- M. van Ewijk3/5
- T. Awoniyi3/5
Newcastle
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Barnes5/5
- L. Hall5/5
- S. Botman5/5
- Y. Wissa5/5
- A. Dedic4/5
- J. Willock4/5
- L. Hornicek4/5
- L. Miley4/5
- M. Thiaw4/5
- Nico4/5
- J. Murphy3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Arsenal – LeedsOct 10, 2026
- Sunderland – BrightonOct 10, 2026
- Chelsea – BournemouthOct 10, 2026
- Aston Villa – BrentfordOct 10, 2026
- Ipswich – FulhamOct 10, 2026
- Manchester United – TottenhamOct 10, 2026
- Hull City – EvertonOct 11, 2026
- Crystal Palace – Nottingham ForestOct 11, 2026
- Liverpool – Manchester CityOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Coventry vs Newcastle prediction?
Our AI gives Coventry a 34% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Newcastle 35%. Newcastle are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Coventry vs Newcastle?
0-0 (14.4%), followed by 0-1 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.5%) and 0-2 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The probability that both Coventry and Newcastle score is 39%. Coventry have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Newcastle 38%.
How many goals should we expect in Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model expects 1.94 goals (0.96 for Coventry, 0.98 for Newcastle). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 58%, over 2.5 goals 31%, over 3.5 goals 13%.
When and where is Coventry vs Newcastle played?
Monday, October 12, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 6. Venue: Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry.
What form are Coventry and Newcastle in?
Coventry: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 10 conceded). Newcastle: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Coventry vs Newcastle prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.96 for Coventry, 0.98 for Newcastle) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Coventry predictions
- All Newcastle predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology