Premier League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)

Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction: correct score and AI tips

Bournemouth–Sunderland

Match analysis

Premier League, matchday 7: the Bournemouth vs Sunderland match is scheduled on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Our model makes Sunderland clear favourites: a 65% chance of winning, against 18% for the draw and 17% for Bournemouth. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.3%), followed by 0-2 (7.8%) and 1-3 (7.7%).

Over their last 5 matches, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Sunderland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bournemouth score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Sunderland score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Bournemouth sit 17th with 3 points from 5 games, Sunderland 14th with 4 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bournemouth have averaged 1.08 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.73 for Sunderland.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bournemouth, 2 for Sunderland and 2 draws. The most recent ended Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland (Feb 28, 2026). Bournemouth out or doubtful: J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi, A. Scott, A. Adli (doubtful), D. Brooks (doubtful), J. Kluivert (doubtful) and V. Milosavljevic (doubtful). Sunderland: H. Diarra, R. Mundle, D. Ballard (doubtful) and B. Brobbey (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Bournemouth or draw" stands at 35%, "Sunderland or draw" at 83% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Our model backs Sunderland to edge Bournemouth (65% probability). On recent form, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Sunderland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 71%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

Double chance

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bournemouth – Sunderland. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.20 expected goals for Bournemouth and 2.46 for Sunderland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 71% and "both teams to score" at 64%. Goals look likely in this one. Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 9% of scenarios, Sunderland in 30%.

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Standings before the match

Head-to-head

Out and doubtful

Most regular starters

Other matches in this competition

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• Newcastle – Aston VillaOct 17, 2026
• Brighton – Crystal PalaceOct 18, 2026
• Leeds – Manchester UnitedOct 18, 2026
• Nottingham Forest – ArsenalOct 18, 2026
• Tottenham – CoventryOct 19, 2026

Frequently asked questions

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Key terms explained

• Correct score
• 1X2 (match result)
• Double chance
• BTTS (both teams to score)
• Over/Under (total goals)
• Poisson distribution
• Recent form
• xG (Expected Goals)
• Head-to-head (H2H)