Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)

Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction: correct score and AI tips

Newcastle–Aston Villa

Match analysis

Newcastle take on Aston Villa on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), a Premier League, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle. With a 60% win probability, Aston Villa go in as strong favourites against Newcastle (19%), with the draw rated at 21%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.9%), ahead of 1-1 (9.6%) and 0-2 (9.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Newcastle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Aston Villa have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Newcastle score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Aston Villa score 2.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Newcastle sit 9th with 8 points from 5 games, Aston Villa 16th with 4 points from 5. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Newcastle have averaged 0.71 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.22 for Aston Villa.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Newcastle, 2 for Aston Villa and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle (Feb 14, 2026). Aston Villa: I. Maatsen, A. Onana, M. Cash (doubtful) and L. Goretzka (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Newcastle or draw" stands at 40%, "Aston Villa or draw" at 81% and "no draw" at 79%.

In short : Aston Villa are tipped by our AI model in this Newcastle v Aston Villa (60%). On recent form, Newcastle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Aston Villa are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

Double chance

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Newcastle – Aston Villa. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.17 goals in total (1.10 for Newcastle, 2.07 for Aston Villa): over 2.5 goals has a 61% probability and both teams to score 58%. Everything points to an open game. Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Aston Villa in 33%.

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Standings before the match

Head-to-head

Out and doubtful

Most regular starters

Other matches in this competition

• Everton – ChelseaOct 17, 2026
• Fulham – Hull CityOct 17, 2026
• Manchester City – IpswichOct 17, 2026
• Brentford – LiverpoolOct 17, 2026
• Bournemouth – SunderlandOct 18, 2026
• Brighton – Crystal PalaceOct 18, 2026
• Leeds – Manchester UnitedOct 18, 2026
• Nottingham Forest – ArsenalOct 18, 2026
• Tottenham – CoventryOct 19, 2026

Frequently asked questions

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Key terms explained

• Correct score
• 1X2 (match result)
• Double chance
• BTTS (both teams to score)
• Over/Under (total goals)
• Poisson distribution
• Recent form
• xG (Expected Goals)
• Head-to-head (H2H)