Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Everton vs Chelsea prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Premier League, matchday 7: the Everton vs Chelsea match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time). Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. The edge goes to Everton (51%), ahead of the draw (23%) and a Chelsea win (26%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.4%), ahead of 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.1%).
Everton are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 5 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 13. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Everton score 1.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Chelsea score 2.60 and concede 2.60. In the table, Everton sit 7th with 9 points from 5 games, Chelsea 10th with 7 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Everton have averaged 1.43 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.66 for Chelsea.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Everton, 3 for Chelsea and 1 draw. The most recent ended Everton 3-0 Chelsea (Mar 21, 2026). Chelsea: J. Gittens, R. James, Joao Pedro, C. Palmer, M. Caicedo (doubtful), E. Emegha (doubtful) and M. Palestra (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Everton or draw" stands at 74%, "Chelsea or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Everton to edge Chelsea (51% probability). On recent form, Everton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 61%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Everton – Chelsea. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Everton 1-1 Chelsea | 10.4% |
| Everton 2-1 Chelsea | 9.6% |
| Everton 1-0 Chelsea | 8.1% |
| Everton 2-0 Chelsea | 7.5% |
| Everton 1-2 Chelsea | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.13 goals in total (1.85 for Everton, 1.28 for Chelsea): over 2.5 goals has a 61% probability and both teams to score 61%. Everything points to an open game. Everton keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Chelsea in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Everton expected goals | 1.85 |
| Chelsea expected goals | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Everton clean sheet | 28% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Everton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Wolves · EFL Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tottenham · Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Manchester United · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
Chelsea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds · EFL Cup | 6-3 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arsenal · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 4-3 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 10 | 7 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Everton 3-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Chelsea 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Chelsea 1-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Everton 0-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Chelsea 6-0 Everton | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Everton
No absences reported.
Chelsea
- J. Gittens (out)
- R. James (out)
- Joao Pedro (out)
- C. Palmer (out)
- M. Caicedo (doubtful)
- E. Emegha (doubtful)
- M. Palestra (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Everton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Garner5/5
- J. Pickford5/5
- K. Dewsbury-Hall5/5
- T. Barry5/5
- V. Mykolenko5/5
- H. Armstrong4/5
- J. Branthwaite4/5
- J. Tarkowski4/5
- A. Maitland-Niles3/5
- B. Johnson3/5
- T. George3/5
Chelsea
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Palmer4/5
- L. Colwill4/5
- M. Lacroix4/5
- M. Rogers4/5
- W. Fofana4/5
- E. Martinez3/5
- J. Hato3/5
- Joao Pedro3/5
- M. Gusto3/5
- P. Neto3/5
- R. Lavia3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Fulham – Hull CityOct 17, 2026
- Manchester City – IpswichOct 17, 2026
- Brentford – LiverpoolOct 17, 2026
- Newcastle – Aston VillaOct 17, 2026
- Bournemouth – SunderlandOct 18, 2026
- Brighton – Crystal PalaceOct 18, 2026
- Leeds – Manchester UnitedOct 18, 2026
- Nottingham Forest – ArsenalOct 18, 2026
- Tottenham – CoventryOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Everton vs Chelsea prediction?
Our AI gives Everton a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Chelsea 26%. Everton are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Everton vs Chelsea?
1-1 (10.4%), followed by 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.5%) and 1-2 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
The probability that both Everton and Chelsea score is 61%. Everton have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Chelsea 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Everton vs Chelsea?
The model expects 3.13 goals (1.85 for Everton, 1.28 for Chelsea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Everton vs Chelsea played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 7. Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool.
What form are Everton and Chelsea in?
Everton: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded). Chelsea: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Everton, 3 for Chelsea and 1 draw. The most recent ended Everton 3-0 Chelsea (Mar 21, 2026).
How is the Everton vs Chelsea prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.85 for Everton, 1.28 for Chelsea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Everton predictions
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