Primeira Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 20:30 (UK time)
Arouca vs Estrela prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Primeira Liga, matchday 8: Arouca vs Estrela kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time). It is a tight call: 36% for Arouca, 23% for the draw and 41% for Estrela. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.1%), followed by 1-2 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Arouca have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Estrela have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Arouca score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Estrela score 2.00 and concede 2.00. In the table, Arouca sit 5th with 11 points from 7 games, Estrela 8th with 10 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Arouca have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.99 for Estrela.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Arouca, 1 for Estrela and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arouca 1-0 Estrela (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Arouca or draw" stands at 59%, "Estrela or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Arouca host Estrela in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (23%). In the table, Arouca (5th, 11 pts) host Estrela (8th, 10 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Arouca – Estrela. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arouca 1-1 Estrela | 10.1% |
| Arouca 1-2 Estrela | 8.6% |
| Arouca 2-1 Estrela | 7.9% |
| Arouca 2-2 Estrela | 6.8% |
| Arouca 0-1 Estrela | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.57 expected goals for Arouca and 1.71 for Estrela, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 64% and "both teams to score" at 65%. Goals look likely in this one. Arouca keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Estrela in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Arouca expected goals | 1.57 |
| Estrela expected goals | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Arouca clean sheet | 18% |
| Estrela clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Arouca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
Estrela
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave · Primeira Liga | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nacional · Primeira Liga | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Estrela | 8 | 10 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arouca 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Estrela 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
Out and doubtful
Arouca
No absences reported.
Estrela
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Arouca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Trezza5/5
- E. van Ee5/5
- I. Barbero5/5
- I. De Arruabarrena5/5
- J. Fontan5/5
- N. Djouahra5/5
- O. Lebedenko5/5
- T. Fukui5/5
- Tiago Esgaio5/5
- J. Sanchez4/5
- P. Gozalbez3/5
Estrela
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Marcus5/5
- I. Stoica5/5
- L. Antonetti5/5
- L. Zvonarek5/5
- M. Scholze5/5
- Rafa Soares5/5
- G. Doue4/5
- Leo Linck4/5
- Luan Patrick4/5
- S. Lekovic4/5
- S. Serra2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Moreirense – GIL VicenteOct 9, 2026
- SC Braga – Sporting CPOct 9, 2026
- Casa Pia – Santa ClaraOct 10, 2026
- Maritimo – FC PortoOct 10, 2026
- Academico Viseu – EstorilOct 10, 2026
- Rio Ave – NacionalOct 11, 2026
- Benfica – GuimaraesOct 11, 2026
- Famalicao – AlvercaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Arouca vs Estrela prediction?
Our AI gives Arouca a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Estrela 41%. Estrela are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Arouca vs Estrela?
1-1 (10.1%), followed by 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (6.8%) and 0-1 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Estrela?
The probability that both Arouca and Estrela score is 65%. Arouca have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estrela 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Arouca vs Estrela?
The model expects 3.28 goals (1.57 for Arouca, 1.71 for Estrela). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is Arouca vs Estrela played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 8.
What form are Arouca and Estrela in?
Arouca: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Estrela: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Estrela?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Arouca, 1 for Estrela and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arouca 1-0 Estrela (Apr 19, 2026).
How is the Arouca vs Estrela prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.57 for Arouca, 1.71 for Estrela) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Arouca predictions
- All Estrela predictions
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology