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Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Maritimo vs FC Porto: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

MaritimoMaritimo1 – 2FC PortoFC Porto

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-2

Final score: Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for FC Porto at 72%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.

Match analysis

Maritimo and FC Porto met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Primeira Liga, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal. Before kick-off, our model gave Maritimo a 10% chance of winning, the draw 18% and FC Porto 72%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (14.4%), followed by 0-1 (13.6%) and 0-3 (10.2%).

Maritimo have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, FC Porto have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. FC Porto therefore arrive in far better shape than Maritimo. On average Maritimo score 1.00 and concede 2.20 goals per game; FC Porto score 2.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Maritimo sit 11th with 8 points from 7 games, FC Porto 1st with 21 points from 7. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Maritimo have averaged 0.90 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.49 for FC Porto.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Maritimo, 4 for FC Porto and 1 draw. The most recent ended Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto (Feb 1, 2023). In double chance terms, "Maritimo or draw" stands at 28%, "FC Porto or draw" at 90% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : FC Porto are tipped by our AI model in this Maritimo v FC Porto (72%). In the table, Maritimo (11th, 8 pts) host FC Porto (1st, 21 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

10%
Maritimo (Win)
18%
Draw
72%
FC Porto (Win)

Double chance

28%
Maritimo or draw
90%
FC Porto or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Maritimo – FC Porto. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto14.4%
Maritimo 0-1 FC Porto13.6%
Maritimo 0-3 FC Porto10.2%
Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto9.1%
Maritimo 1-1 FC Porto8.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.63 expected goals for Maritimo and 2.12 for FC Porto, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 52% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, FC Porto in 53%.

Probability
Maritimo expected goals0.63
FC Porto expected goals2.12
Both teams to score41%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Maritimo clean sheet12%
FC Porto clean sheet53%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Maritimo

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga1-1D
Sep 14, 2026Moreirense · Primeira Liga1-3L
Sep 5, 2026Benfica · Primeira Liga0-3L
Aug 29, 2026Arouca · Primeira Liga1-2L
Aug 22, 2026Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga2-2D

FC Porto

DateOpponentScore
Oct 2, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies3-1W
Sep 20, 2026Benfica · Primeira Liga3-1W
Sep 12, 2026Casa Pia · Primeira Liga4-1W
Sep 8, 2026Manchester City · UEFA Champions League0-2L
Sep 4, 2026Moreirense · Primeira Liga2-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Maritimo1187
FC Porto1217

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 1, 2023Maritimo 0-2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Aug 6, 2022FC Porto 5-1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
Jan 30, 2022FC Porto 2-1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
Aug 22, 2021Maritimo 1-1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Feb 22, 2021Maritimo 1-2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga

Out and doubtful

Maritimo

No absences reported.

FC Porto

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Maritimo

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Butzke5/5
  • Igor Juliao5/5
  • M. Tejon5/5
  • P. Henrique5/5
  • R. Andrade5/5
  • R. Correia5/5
  • Raphael Guzzo5/5
  • V. Danilovic5/5
  • A. Pastor4/5
  • R. Fernandes4/5
  • B. Limbombe3/5

FC Porto

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Costa5/5
  • Pepê5/5
  • William Gomes5/5
  • Andre Silva4/5
  • D. Costa4/5
  • G. Veiga4/5
  • J. Kiwior4/5
  • P. Rosario4/5
  • F. Moura3/5
  • J. Bednarek3/5
  • A. Varela2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Maritimo vs FC Porto prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Maritimo a 10% chance of winning, the draw 18% and FC Porto 72%. FC Porto are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Maritimo vs FC Porto?

0-2 (14.4%), followed by 0-1 (13.6%), 0-3 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.1%) and 1-1 (8.5%).

Will both teams score in Maritimo vs FC Porto?

The probability that both Maritimo and FC Porto score is 41%. Maritimo have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Porto 53%.

How many goals should we expect in Maritimo vs FC Porto?

The model expects 2.75 goals (0.63 for Maritimo, 2.12 for FC Porto). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.

When and where is Maritimo vs FC Porto played?

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 8. Venue: Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal.

What form are Maritimo and FC Porto in?

Maritimo: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 11 conceded). FC Porto: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and FC Porto?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Maritimo, 4 for FC Porto and 1 draw. The most recent ended Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto (Feb 1, 2023).

What was the Maritimo vs FC Porto result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for FC Porto at 72%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.

How is the Maritimo vs FC Porto prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.63 for Maritimo, 2.12 for FC Porto) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained