Primeira Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Maritimo vs FC Porto prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Maritimo take on FC Porto on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), a Primeira Liga, matchday 8 fixture. Our model makes FC Porto clear favourites: a 68% chance of winning, against 19% for the draw and 13% for Maritimo. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (12.0%) and 1-2 (9.6%).
Maritimo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, FC Porto have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. FC Porto therefore arrive in far better shape than Maritimo. On average Maritimo score 1.20 and concede 2.20 goals per game; FC Porto score 2.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Maritimo sit 11th with 8 points from 7 games, FC Porto 1st with 21 points from 7. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Maritimo have averaged 1.08 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.49 for FC Porto.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Maritimo and FC Porto: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Maritimo or draw" stands at 32%, "FC Porto or draw" at 87% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : FC Porto are tipped by our AI model in this Maritimo v FC Porto (68%). In the table, Maritimo (11th, 8 pts) host FC Porto (1st, 21 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Maritimo – FC Porto. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto | 12.5% |
| Maritimo 0-1 FC Porto | 12.0% |
| Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto | 9.6% |
| Maritimo 1-1 FC Porto | 9.3% |
| Maritimo 0-3 FC Porto | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.77 expected goals for Maritimo and 2.08 for FC Porto, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 54% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, FC Porto in 46%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Maritimo expected goals | 0.77 |
| FC Porto expected goals | 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Maritimo clean sheet | 13% |
| FC Porto clean sheet | 46% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Maritimo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
FC Porto
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manchester City · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| FC Porto | 1 | 21 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Maritimo and FC Porto: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Maritimo
No absences reported.
FC Porto
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Maritimo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Raphael Guzzo5/5
- A. Butzke4/5
- A. Pastor4/5
- Igor Juliao4/5
- M. Tejon4/5
- P. Henrique4/5
- R. Andrade4/5
- R. Correia4/5
- R. Fernandes4/5
- V. Danilovic4/5
- B. Limbombe3/5
FC Porto
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Kiwior5/5
- P. Rosario5/5
- A. Costa4/5
- Andre Silva4/5
- D. Costa4/5
- G. Veiga4/5
- J. Bednarek4/5
- Pepê4/5
- William Gomes4/5
- F. Moura2/5
- V. Froholdt2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Moreirense – GIL VicenteOct 9, 2026
- SC Braga – Sporting CPOct 9, 2026
- Casa Pia – Santa ClaraOct 10, 2026
- Academico Viseu – EstorilOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Maritimo vs FC Porto prediction?
Our AI gives Maritimo a 13% chance of winning, the draw 19% and FC Porto 68%. FC Porto are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Maritimo vs FC Porto?
0-2 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (12.0%), 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%) and 0-3 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs FC Porto?
The probability that both Maritimo and FC Porto score is 47%. Maritimo have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Porto 46%.
How many goals should we expect in Maritimo vs FC Porto?
The model expects 2.85 goals (0.77 for Maritimo, 2.08 for FC Porto). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Maritimo vs FC Porto played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 8.
What form are Maritimo and FC Porto in?
Maritimo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded). FC Porto: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Maritimo vs FC Porto prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.77 for Maritimo, 2.08 for FC Porto) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Maritimo predictions
- All FC Porto predictions
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology