Primeira Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:30 (UK time)
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Primeira Liga, matchday 8: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:30 (UK time). Our model makes Santa Clara clear favourites: a 70% chance of winning, against 18% for the draw and 12% for Casa Pia. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (11.5%) and 1-2 (9.5%).
Casa Pia have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Santa Clara therefore arrive in far better shape than Casa Pia. On average Casa Pia score 0.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Santa Clara score 1.80 and concede 0.40. In the table, Casa Pia sit 17th with 4 points from 7 games, Santa Clara 4th with 15 points from 7. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Casa Pia have averaged 1.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.34 for Santa Clara.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Casa Pia, 1 for Santa Clara and 1 draw. The most recent ended Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara (Apr 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Casa Pia or draw" stands at 30%, "Santa Clara or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Santa Clara are favourites for this Casa Pia v Santa Clara, with a 70% win probability from our model. On recent form, Casa Pia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Santa Clara are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Casa Pia – Santa Clara. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Casa Pia 0-2 Santa Clara | 12.6% |
| Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara | 11.5% |
| Casa Pia 1-2 Santa Clara | 9.5% |
| Casa Pia 0-3 Santa Clara | 9.1% |
| Casa Pia 1-1 Santa Clara | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.76 expected goals for Casa Pia and 2.18 for Santa Clara, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Santa Clara in 47%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Casa Pia expected goals | 0.76 |
| Santa Clara expected goals | 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 11% |
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 47% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Casa Pia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vitória SC · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
Santa Clara
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arouca · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rio Ave · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Alverca · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 17 | 4 | 7 |
| Santa Clara | 4 | 15 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Santa Clara 1-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
Out and doubtful
Casa Pia
No absences reported.
Santa Clara
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Casa Pia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Ofori5/5
- A. Geraldes4/5
- D. Sousa4/5
- S. Clua4/5
- A. Gomes3/5
- A. Jatta3/5
- J. Rego3/5
- Kaly3/5
- P. Rosas3/5
- B. Pauwels2/5
- H. Araujo2/5
Santa Clara
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Fernandes5/5
- G. Paciencia5/5
- Guilherme Romao5/5
- J. Tavares5/5
- Lucas Franca5/5
- P. Ferreira5/5
- P. Pacheco5/5
- Vinicius Lopes5/5
- Diogo Calila3/5
- Sorriso3/5
- T. Ribeiro3/5
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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Casa Pia vs Santa Clara prediction?
Our AI gives Casa Pia a 12% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Santa Clara 70%. Santa Clara are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
0-2 (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (11.5%), 1-2 (9.5%), 0-3 (9.1%) and 1-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
The probability that both Casa Pia and Santa Clara score is 47%. Casa Pia have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Santa Clara 47%.
How many goals should we expect in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
The model expects 2.94 goals (0.76 for Casa Pia, 2.18 for Santa Clara). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:30 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 8.
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in?
Casa Pia: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded). Santa Clara: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Casa Pia, 1 for Santa Clara and 1 draw. The most recent ended Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara (Apr 18, 2026).
How is the Casa Pia vs Santa Clara prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.76 for Casa Pia, 2.18 for Santa Clara) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Casa Pia predictions
- All Santa Clara predictions
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology