Primeira Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 15:30 (UK time)
Rio Ave vs Nacional prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Primeira Liga, matchday 8: Rio Ave vs Nacional kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 15:30 (UK time). A draw is the single most likely outcome (35%), ahead of Rio Ave (35%) and Nacional (30%). The most likely correct score is 0-0 (19.6%), ahead of 1-0 (16.8%) and 0-1 (15.1%).
Rio Ave have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 13. Nacional have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Rio Ave score 1.00 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Nacional score 1.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Rio Ave sit 16th with 4 points from 7 games, Nacional 15th with 4 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Rio Ave have averaged 0.74 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.85 for Nacional.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Rio Ave, 1 for Nacional and 1 draw. The most recent ended Nacional 4-0 Rio Ave (Jan 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Rio Ave or draw" stands at 70%, "Nacional or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 65%.
In short : Rio Ave host Nacional in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (35%). On recent form, Rio Ave have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Nacional are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rio Ave – Nacional. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 72% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rio Ave 0-0 Nacional | 19.6% |
| Rio Ave 1-0 Nacional | 16.8% |
| Rio Ave 0-1 Nacional | 15.1% |
| Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional | 13.0% |
| Rio Ave 2-0 Nacional | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.63 goals in total (0.86 for Rio Ave, 0.77 for Nacional): over 2.5 goals has a 22% probability and both teams to score 31%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Rio Ave keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Nacional in 42%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rio Ave expected goals | 0.86 |
| Nacional expected goals | 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 31% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% |
| Rio Ave clean sheet | 46% |
| Nacional clean sheet | 42% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Rio Ave
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitória SC · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 16 | 4 | 7 |
| Nacional | 15 | 4 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Nacional 4-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
Out and doubtful
Rio Ave
No absences reported.
Nacional
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Rio Ave
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Diogo Bezerra5/5
- E. van der Gouw5/5
- F. Petrasso5/5
- J. Blesa5/5
- T. Nikitscher5/5
- G. Liavas4/5
- Tamble4/5
- A. Ntoi3/5
- Gustavo Mancha3/5
- D. Nascimento2/5
- D. Spikic2/5
Nacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Matheus Dias5/5
- Pablo Ruan5/5
- Wesley Gasolina5/5
- Leo Santos4/5
- M. Baeza4/5
- M. Jensen4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- Ze Vitor4/5
- Daniel Junior3/5
- F. Soares3/5
- Liziero3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Moreirense – GIL VicenteOct 9, 2026
- SC Braga – Sporting CPOct 9, 2026
- Casa Pia – Santa ClaraOct 10, 2026
- Maritimo – FC PortoOct 10, 2026
- Academico Viseu – EstorilOct 10, 2026
- Benfica – GuimaraesOct 11, 2026
- Arouca – EstrelaOct 11, 2026
- Famalicao – AlvercaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Rio Ave vs Nacional prediction?
Our AI gives Rio Ave a 35% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Nacional 30%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome.
What is the most likely correct score for Rio Ave vs Nacional?
0-0 (19.6%), followed by 1-0 (16.8%), 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.0%) and 2-0 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Nacional?
The probability that both Rio Ave and Nacional score is 31%. Rio Ave have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Nacional 42%.
How many goals should we expect in Rio Ave vs Nacional?
The model expects 1.63 goals (0.86 for Rio Ave, 0.77 for Nacional). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 49%, over 2.5 goals 22%, over 3.5 goals 8%.
When and where is Rio Ave vs Nacional played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 15:30 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 8.
What form are Rio Ave and Nacional in?
Rio Ave: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded). Nacional: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Rio Ave and Nacional?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Rio Ave, 1 for Nacional and 1 draw. The most recent ended Nacional 4-0 Rio Ave (Jan 25, 2026).
How is the Rio Ave vs Nacional prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.86 for Rio Ave, 0.77 for Nacional) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rio Ave predictions
- All Nacional predictions
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology