Primeira Liga· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 18:45 (UK time)
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Moreirense (34%), while victory for GIL Vicente was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (14.1%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): correct.
Match analysis
Moreirense and GIL Vicente met on Friday, October 9, 2026, a Primeira Liga, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos. Before kick-off, our model gave Moreirense a 34% chance of winning, the draw 32% and GIL Vicente 34%. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (14.8%), followed by 1-0 (14.2%) and 0-1 (14.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Moreirense have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. GIL Vicente have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Moreirense score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; GIL Vicente score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Moreirense sit 12th with 8 points from 7 games, GIL Vicente 9th with 8 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Moreirense have averaged 0.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.01 for GIL Vicente.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Moreirense, 3 for GIL Vicente and 1 draw. The most recent ended GIL Vicente 2-2 Moreirense (Jul 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Moreirense or draw" stands at 66%, "GIL Vicente or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 68%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Moreirense and GIL Vicente: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Moreirense have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while GIL Vicente have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Moreirense – GIL Vicente. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Moreirense 0-0 GIL Vicente | 14.8% |
| Moreirense 1-0 GIL Vicente | 14.2% |
| Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente | 14.1% |
| Moreirense 1-1 GIL Vicente | 13.5% |
| Moreirense 2-0 GIL Vicente | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.96 expected goals for Moreirense and 0.95 for GIL Vicente, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 30% and "both teams to score" at 38%. Few goals are expected here. Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, GIL Vicente in 38%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Moreirense expected goals | 0.96 |
| GIL Vicente expected goals | 0.95 |
| Both teams to score | 38% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Moreirense clean sheet | 39% |
| GIL Vicente clean sheet | 38% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Moreirense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vitória SC · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
GIL Vicente
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| GIL Vicente | 9 | 8 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-2 Moreirense | Club Friendlies |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2025 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | GIL Vicente 0-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | GIL Vicente 1-0 Moreirense | Taça de Portugal |
Out and doubtful
Moreirense
No absences reported.
GIL Vicente
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Moreirense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Kiko5/5
- N. John5/5
- A. Ferreira4/5
- D. Pinto4/5
- G. Batista4/5
- M. Mendonca4/5
- Maracas4/5
- A. Duville-Parsemain3/5
- Guilherme Liberato3/5
- Landerson3/5
- J. Veloso2/5
GIL Vicente
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Pinto Martins4/5
- H. Hernandez4/5
- J. Buatu4/5
- Lucao4/5
- M. Elimbi4/5
- R. Esgaio4/5
- A. Lausen3/5
- J. Fernandes3/5
- Weverson3/5
- D. Prioste2/5
- F. Caseres2/5
Other matches in this competition
- SC Braga 1-3 Sporting CPOct 9, 2026
- Maritimo 1-2 FC PortoOct 10, 2026
- Casa Pia 0-1 Santa ClaraOct 10, 2026
- Academico Viseu 2-1 EstorilOct 10, 2026
- Rio Ave 3-2 NacionalOct 11, 2026
- Benfica 2-0 GuimaraesOct 11, 2026
- Arouca 1-0 EstrelaOct 11, 2026
- Famalicao 1-4 AlvercaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Moreirense vs GIL Vicente prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Moreirense a 34% chance of winning, the draw 32% and GIL Vicente 34%. Moreirense are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
0-0 (14.8%), followed by 1-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.5%) and 2-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
The probability that both Moreirense and GIL Vicente score is 38%. Moreirense have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, GIL Vicente 38%.
How many goals should we expect in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
The model expects 1.91 goals (0.96 for Moreirense, 0.95 for GIL Vicente). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 57%, over 2.5 goals 30%, over 3.5 goals 13%.
When and where is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 18:45 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 8. Venue: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos.
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in?
Moreirense: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). GIL Vicente: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Moreirense, 3 for GIL Vicente and 1 draw. The most recent ended GIL Vicente 2-2 Moreirense (Jul 25, 2026).
What was the Moreirense vs GIL Vicente result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Moreirense (34%), while victory for GIL Vicente was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (14.1%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): correct.
How is the Moreirense vs GIL Vicente prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.96 for Moreirense, 0.95 for GIL Vicente) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Moreirense predictions
- All GIL Vicente predictions
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology