Primeira Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Benfica vs Guimaraes prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Primeira Liga, matchday 8: Benfica vs Guimaraes kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time). The edge goes to Benfica (57%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Guimaraes win (17%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (16.1%), ahead of 2-0 (12.3%) and 1-1 (11.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Benfica have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Guimaraes have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Benfica. On average Benfica score 2.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Guimaraes score 0.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Benfica sit 2nd with 16 points from 7 games, Guimaraes 14th with 5 points from 7. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Benfica have averaged 0.74 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.48 for Guimaraes.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Benfica, 0 for Guimaraes and 1 draw. The most recent ended Benfica 3-0 Guimaraes (Mar 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Benfica or draw" stands at 83%, "Guimaraes or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Benfica are tipped by our AI model in this Benfica v Guimaraes (57%). In the table, Benfica (2nd, 16 pts) host Guimaraes (14th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Benfica – Guimaraes. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Benfica 1-0 Guimaraes | 16.1% |
| Benfica 2-0 Guimaraes | 12.3% |
| Benfica 1-1 Guimaraes | 11.6% |
| Benfica 0-0 Guimaraes | 10.5% |
| Benfica 2-1 Guimaraes | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.25 goals in total (1.53 for Benfica, 0.72 for Guimaraes): over 2.5 goals has a 39% probability and both teams to score 40%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Benfica keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Guimaraes in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Benfica expected goals | 1.53 |
| Guimaraes expected goals | 0.72 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 49% |
| Guimaraes clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Benfica
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 3-0 | W |
Guimaraes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional · Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 2 | 16 | 7 |
| Guimaraes | 14 | 5 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Benfica 3-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Benfica 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
Out and doubtful
Benfica
No absences reported.
Guimaraes
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Benfica
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Lenglet4/5
- G. Prestianni4/5
- S. Dahl4/5
- T. Araujo4/5
- V. Pavlidis4/5
- D. Banjaqui3/5
- J. Palhinha3/5
- L. Barreiro3/5
- Rafa Silva3/5
- S. Soares3/5
- A. Bah2/5
Guimaraes
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gustavo5/5
- L. Doucet5/5
- O. Zych5/5
- T. Strata5/5
- Thiago Balieiro5/5
- J. Mendes4/5
- Samu4/5
- A. Ndoye3/5
- M. Nogueira3/5
- A. Jakupovic2/5
- A. Sidibe2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Moreirense – GIL VicenteOct 9, 2026
- SC Braga – Sporting CPOct 9, 2026
- Casa Pia – Santa ClaraOct 10, 2026
- Maritimo – FC PortoOct 10, 2026
- Academico Viseu – EstorilOct 10, 2026
- Rio Ave – NacionalOct 11, 2026
- Arouca – EstrelaOct 11, 2026
- Famalicao – AlvercaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Benfica vs Guimaraes prediction?
Our AI gives Benfica a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guimaraes 17%. Benfica are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Benfica vs Guimaraes?
1-0 (16.1%), followed by 2-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Guimaraes?
The probability that both Benfica and Guimaraes score is 40%. Benfica have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Guimaraes 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Benfica vs Guimaraes?
The model expects 2.25 goals (1.53 for Benfica, 0.72 for Guimaraes). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Benfica vs Guimaraes played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 8.
What form are Benfica and Guimaraes in?
Benfica: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 4 conceded). Guimaraes: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Guimaraes?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Benfica, 0 for Guimaraes and 1 draw. The most recent ended Benfica 3-0 Guimaraes (Mar 21, 2026).
How is the Benfica vs Guimaraes prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Benfica, 0.72 for Guimaraes) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Benfica predictions
- All Guimaraes predictions
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology