Primeira Liga· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 20:15 (UK time)
Famalicao vs Alverca prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Primeira Liga, matchday 8: Famalicao vs Alverca kicks off on Monday, October 12, 2026 at 20:15 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao. A draw is the single most likely outcome (37%), ahead of Famalicao (28%) and Alverca (35%). The most likely correct score is 0-0 (22.5%), ahead of 0-1 (18.3%) and 1-0 (15.3%).
Famalicao have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 4. Alverca have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Famalicao score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Alverca score 1.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Famalicao sit 13th with 7 points from 7 games, Alverca 10th with 8 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Famalicao have averaged 0.64 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.86 for Alverca.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Famalicao, 1 for Alverca and 0 draws. The most recent ended Famalicao 1-0 Alverca (May 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "Famalicao or draw" stands at 65%, "Alverca or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 63%.
In short : Famalicao and Alverca meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 37%). In the table, Famalicao (13th, 7 pts) host Alverca (10th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Famalicao – Alverca. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (22.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 76% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Famalicao 0-0 Alverca | 22.5% |
| Famalicao 0-1 Alverca | 18.3% |
| Famalicao 1-0 Alverca | 15.3% |
| Famalicao 1-1 Alverca | 12.4% |
| Famalicao 0-2 Alverca | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.49 goals in total (0.68 for Famalicao, 0.81 for Alverca): over 2.5 goals has a 19% probability and both teams to score 27%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Alverca in 51%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Famalicao expected goals | 0.68 |
| Alverca expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 27% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 19% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 6% |
| Famalicao clean sheet | 45% |
| Alverca clean sheet | 51% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Famalicao
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Nacional · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 0-1 | L |
Alverca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 13 | 7 | 7 |
| Alverca | 10 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Famalicao 1-0 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Alverca 1-0 Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
Out and doubtful
Famalicao
No absences reported.
Alverca
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Famalicao
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. van Breemen5/5
- G. Koutsias5/5
- L. Carevic5/5
- M. De Amorim5/5
- Pedro Bondo5/5
- R. Pinheiro5/5
- Sorriso5/5
- Gil Dias4/5
- M. Pena4/5
- L. Realpe3/5
- P. Moreira2/5
Alverca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Figueiredo5/5
- I. James5/5
- Ian Luccas5/5
- Matheus Mendes5/5
- Y. Bojang5/5
- S. Baseya4/5
- V. Semedo4/5
- Chiquinho3/5
- D. Gui3/5
- N. Touaizi3/5
- Rayan Lucas3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Moreirense – GIL VicenteOct 9, 2026
- SC Braga – Sporting CPOct 9, 2026
- Casa Pia – Santa ClaraOct 10, 2026
- Maritimo – FC PortoOct 10, 2026
- Academico Viseu – EstorilOct 10, 2026
- Rio Ave – NacionalOct 11, 2026
- Benfica – GuimaraesOct 11, 2026
- Arouca – EstrelaOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Famalicao vs Alverca prediction?
Our AI gives Famalicao a 28% chance of winning, the draw 37% and Alverca 35%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome.
What is the most likely correct score for Famalicao vs Alverca?
0-0 (22.5%), followed by 0-1 (18.3%), 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (12.4%) and 0-2 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Alverca?
The probability that both Famalicao and Alverca score is 27%. Famalicao have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alverca 51%.
How many goals should we expect in Famalicao vs Alverca?
The model expects 1.49 goals (0.68 for Famalicao, 0.81 for Alverca). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 44%, over 2.5 goals 19%, over 3.5 goals 6%.
When and where is Famalicao vs Alverca played?
Monday, October 12, 2026 at 20:15 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 8. Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao.
What form are Famalicao and Alverca in?
Famalicao: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Alverca: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Alverca?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Famalicao, 1 for Alverca and 0 draws. The most recent ended Famalicao 1-0 Alverca (May 16, 2026).
How is the Famalicao vs Alverca prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.68 for Famalicao, 0.81 for Alverca) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Famalicao predictions
- All Alverca predictions
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology