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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

AS Roma vs Atalanta: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

AS RomaAS Roma2 – 1AtalantaAtalanta

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for AS Roma at 91%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (76%): correct.

Match analysis

AS Roma and Atalanta met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Before kick-off, our model gave AS Roma a 91% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Atalanta 2%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (13.4%), followed by 4-0 (11.7%) and 2-0 (11.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, AS Roma have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 6. Atalanta are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 5 and conceding 1. Atalanta therefore arrive in far better shape than AS Roma. On average AS Roma score 2.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Atalanta score 1.00 and concede 0.20. In the table, AS Roma sit 2nd with 6 points from 2 games, Atalanta 6th with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, AS Roma have averaged 3.21 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.52 for Atalanta.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Atalanta and 1 draw. The most recent ended AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta (Apr 18, 2026). AS Roma out or doubtful: M. Bah, L. Pellegrini, D. Rensch and E. Ndicka. Atalanta: H. Ahanor, I. Hien, T. Kristensen and K. Sulemana. In double chance terms, "AS Roma or draw" stands at 98%, "Atalanta or draw" at 9% and "no draw" at 93%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

91%
AS Roma (Win)
7%
Draw
2%
Atalanta (Win)

Double chance

98%
AS Roma or draw
9%
Atalanta or draw
93%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as AS Roma – Atalanta. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
AS Roma 3-0 Atalanta13.4%
AS Roma 4-0 Atalanta11.7%
AS Roma 2-0 Atalanta11.4%
AS Roma 5-0 Atalanta8.2%
AS Roma 1-0 Atalanta6.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 3.50 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.48 for Atalanta, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 76% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Goals look likely in this one. AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 62% of scenarios, Atalanta in 3%.

Probability
AS Roma expected goals3.50
Atalanta expected goals0.48
Both teams to score37%
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals56%
AS Roma clean sheet62%
Atalanta clean sheet3%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

AS Roma

DateOpponentScore
Aug 31, 2026Lecce · Serie A4-0W
Aug 24, 2026Fiorentina · Serie A4-0W
Aug 15, 2026Borussia Dortmund · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 8, 2026Brighton · Club Friendlies0-3L
Aug 4, 2026Newport County · Club Friendlies4-1W

Atalanta

DateOpponentScore
Aug 31, 2026Bologna · Serie A1-0W
Aug 27, 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Aug 23, 2026Sassuolo · Serie A2-1W
Aug 20, 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League0-0D
Aug 14, 2026Athletic Club · Club Friendlies1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
AS Roma262
Atalanta662

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 18, 2026AS Roma 1-1 AtalantaSerie A
Jan 3, 2026Atalanta 1-0 AS RomaSerie A

Out and doubtful

AS Roma

  • M. Bah (out)
  • L. Pellegrini (out)
  • D. Rensch (out)
  • E. Ndicka (out)

Atalanta

  • H. Ahanor (out)
  • I. Hien (out)
  • T. Kristensen (out)
  • K. Sulemana (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the AS Roma vs Atalanta prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave AS Roma a 91% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Atalanta 2%. AS Roma are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for AS Roma vs Atalanta?

3-0 (13.4%), followed by 4-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.4%), 5-0 (8.2%) and 1-0 (6.5%).

Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?

The probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta score is 37%. AS Roma have a 62% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atalanta 3%.

How many goals should we expect in AS Roma vs Atalanta?

The model expects 3.98 goals (3.50 for AS Roma, 0.48 for Atalanta). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 76%, over 3.5 goals 56%.

When and where is AS Roma vs Atalanta played?

Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 3. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.

What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in?

AS Roma: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 6 conceded). Atalanta: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 1 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Atalanta and 1 draw. The most recent ended AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta (Apr 18, 2026).

What was the AS Roma vs Atalanta result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for AS Roma at 91%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (76%): correct.

How is the AS Roma vs Atalanta prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.50 for AS Roma, 0.48 for Atalanta) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained