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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Juventus vs AC Milan: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

JuventusJuventus1 – 1AC MilanAC Milan

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-1

Final score: Juventus 1-1 AC Milan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Juventus (44%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (75%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): missed.

Match analysis

Juventus vs AC Milan was played on Sunday, September 6, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 3). Venue: Allianz Stadium, Turin. Before kick-off, our model gave Juventus a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and AC Milan 35%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (7.6%), ahead of 2-2 (7.3%) and 1-1 (7.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Juventus have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, AC Milan have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Juventus score 1.40 and concede 0.40 goals per game; AC Milan score 1.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Juventus sit 5th with 6 points from 2 games, AC Milan 4th with 6 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Juventus have averaged 1.88 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.18 for AC Milan.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Juventus, 0 for AC Milan and 2 draws. The most recent ended AC Milan 0-0 Juventus (Apr 26, 2026). Juventus out or doubtful: J. Cabal, J. Ekhator, K. Thuram, K. Yildiz and A. Cambiaso. AC Milan: M. Gabbia. In double chance terms, "Juventus or draw" stands at 65%, "AC Milan or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 79%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

44%
Juventus (Win)
21%
Draw
35%
AC Milan (Win)

Double chance

65%
Juventus or draw
56%
AC Milan or draw
79%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Juventus – AC Milan. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Juventus 2-1 AC Milan7.6%
Juventus 2-2 AC Milan7.3%
Juventus 1-1 AC Milan7.1%
Juventus 1-2 AC Milan6.8%
Juventus 3-1 AC Milan5.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.06 goals in total (2.15 for Juventus, 1.91 for AC Milan): over 2.5 goals has a 77% probability and both teams to score 75%. Everything points to an open game. Juventus keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, AC Milan in 12%.

Probability
Juventus expected goals2.15
AC Milan expected goals1.91
Both teams to score75%
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals77%
Over 3.5 goals58%
Juventus clean sheet15%
AC Milan clean sheet12%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Juventus

DateOpponentScore
Aug 29, 2026Parma · Serie A2-0W
Aug 23, 2026Frosinone · Serie A1-0W
Aug 11, 2026Palermo · Club Friendlies2-0W
Aug 8, 2026Inter · Club Friendlies1-2L
Aug 5, 2026Chelsea · Club Friendlies1-0W

AC Milan

DateOpponentScore
Aug 28, 2026Venezia · Serie A2-0W
Aug 23, 2026Torino · Serie A2-1W
Aug 15, 2026Manchester United · Club Friendlies4-2W
Aug 8, 2026Chelsea · Club Friendlies0-3L
Aug 5, 2026Inter · Club Friendlies1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Juventus562
AC Milan462

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 26, 2026AC Milan 0-0 JuventusSerie A
Oct 5, 2025Juventus 0-0 AC MilanSerie A

Out and doubtful

Juventus

  • J. Cabal (out)
  • J. Ekhator (out)
  • K. Thuram (out)
  • K. Yildiz (out)
  • A. Cambiaso (out)

AC Milan

  • M. Gabbia (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Juventus vs AC Milan prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Juventus a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and AC Milan 35%. Juventus are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Juventus vs AC Milan?

2-1 (7.6%), followed by 2-2 (7.3%), 1-1 (7.1%), 1-2 (6.8%) and 3-1 (5.5%).

Will both teams score in Juventus vs AC Milan?

The probability that both Juventus and AC Milan score is 75%. Juventus have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AC Milan 12%.

How many goals should we expect in Juventus vs AC Milan?

The model expects 4.06 goals (2.15 for Juventus, 1.91 for AC Milan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.

When and where is Juventus vs AC Milan played?

Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 3. Venue: Allianz Stadium, Turin.

What form are Juventus and AC Milan in?

Juventus: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 2 conceded). AC Milan: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AC Milan?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Juventus, 0 for AC Milan and 2 draws. The most recent ended AC Milan 0-0 Juventus (Apr 26, 2026).

What was the Juventus vs AC Milan result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Juventus 1-1 AC Milan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Juventus (44%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (75%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): missed.

How is the Juventus vs AC Milan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.15 for Juventus, 1.91 for AC Milan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained