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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Bologna vs Sassuolo: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

BolognaBologna2 – 2SassuoloSassuolo

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Bologna 2-2 Sassuolo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sassuolo (75%), while a draw was rated at only 14%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.

Match analysis

Bologna and Sassuolo met on Sunday, September 6, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna. Before kick-off, our model gave Bologna a 11% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Sassuolo 75%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.3%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.6%).

Bologna have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Sassuolo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Sassuolo therefore arrive in far better shape than Bologna. On average Bologna score 0.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Sassuolo score 1.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Bologna sit 15th with 0 points from 2 games, Sassuolo 10th with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bologna have averaged 1.42 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.28 for Sassuolo.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bologna, 0 for Sassuolo and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna (Mar 15, 2026). Bologna out or doubtful: O. El Azzouzi and R. Orsolini. Sassuolo: D. Boloca, F. Cande, I. Kone, Y. Paz and E. Pieragnolo. In double chance terms, "Bologna or draw" stands at 25%, "Sassuolo or draw" at 89% and "no draw" at 86%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

11%
Bologna (Win)
14%
Draw
75%
Sassuolo (Win)

Double chance

25%
Bologna or draw
89%
Sassuolo or draw
86%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bologna – Sassuolo. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bologna 1-2 Sassuolo8.3%
Bologna 1-3 Sassuolo8.2%
Bologna 0-2 Sassuolo7.6%
Bologna 0-3 Sassuolo7.5%
Bologna 1-4 Sassuolo6.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.09 expected goals for Bologna and 2.96 for Sassuolo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 77% and "both teams to score" at 63%. Goals look likely in this one. Bologna keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Sassuolo in 34%.

Probability
Bologna expected goals1.09
Sassuolo expected goals2.96
Both teams to score63%
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals77%
Over 3.5 goals58%
Bologna clean sheet5%
Sassuolo clean sheet34%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Bologna

DateOpponentScore
Aug 31, 2026Atalanta · Serie A0-1L
Aug 24, 2026Lazio · Serie A0-1L
Aug 15, 2026Brighton · Club Friendlies0-1L
Aug 8, 2026Pisa · Club Friendlies1-4L
Aug 1, 2026Cambuur · Club Friendlies3-1W

Sassuolo

DateOpponentScore
Sep 2, 2026Frosinone · Coppa Italia1-1D
Aug 29, 2026Torino · Serie A2-1W
Aug 23, 2026Atalanta · Serie A1-2L
Aug 17, 2026Cesena · Coppa Italia3-0W
Aug 8, 2026FC Augsburg · Club Friendlies2-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bologna1502
Sassuolo1032

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 15, 2026Sassuolo 0-1 BolognaSerie A
Dec 28, 2025Bologna 1-1 SassuoloSerie A

Out and doubtful

Bologna

  • O. El Azzouzi (out)
  • R. Orsolini (out)

Sassuolo

  • D. Boloca (out)
  • F. Cande (out)
  • I. Kone (out)
  • Y. Paz (out)
  • E. Pieragnolo (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bologna vs Sassuolo prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Bologna a 11% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Sassuolo 75%. Sassuolo are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Bologna vs Sassuolo?

1-2 (8.3%), followed by 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.6%), 0-3 (7.5%) and 1-4 (6.1%).

Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?

The probability that both Bologna and Sassuolo score is 63%. Bologna have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sassuolo 34%.

How many goals should we expect in Bologna vs Sassuolo?

The model expects 4.05 goals (1.09 for Bologna, 2.96 for Sassuolo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.

When and where is Bologna vs Sassuolo played?

Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 3. Venue: Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna.

What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in?

Bologna: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded). Sassuolo: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bologna, 0 for Sassuolo and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna (Mar 15, 2026).

What was the Bologna vs Sassuolo result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Bologna 2-2 Sassuolo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sassuolo (75%), while a draw was rated at only 14%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.5%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): correct.

How is the Bologna vs Sassuolo prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.09 for Bologna, 2.96 for Sassuolo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained