Serie A· Kick-off : Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Cagliari vs Lecce: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cagliari 1-0 Lecce. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lecce (56%), while victory for Cagliari was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): correct.
Match analysis
Cagliari and Lecce met on Monday, September 7, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 3 fixture. Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari. Before kick-off, our model gave Cagliari a 19% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lecce 56%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (15.0%), followed by 0-2 (11.8%) and 1-1 (11.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cagliari have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Lecce have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Cagliari score 0.60 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Lecce score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Cagliari sit 11th with 3 points from 2 games, Lecce 12th with 3 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Cagliari have averaged 0.71 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.72 for Lecce.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cagliari, 1 for Lecce and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cagliari 0-2 Lecce (Feb 16, 2026). Cagliari out or doubtful: R. Idrissi, Y. Trepy and Y. Mina. Lecce: W. Geubbels. In double chance terms, "Cagliari or draw" stands at 44%, "Lecce or draw" at 81% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cagliari – Lecce. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cagliari 0-1 Lecce | 15.0% |
| Cagliari 0-2 Lecce | 11.8% |
| Cagliari 1-1 Lecce | 11.7% |
| Cagliari 0-0 Lecce | 9.5% |
| Cagliari 1-2 Lecce | 9.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.78 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.57 for Lecce, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Few goals are expected here. Cagliari keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, Lecce in 46%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cagliari expected goals | 0.78 |
| Lecce expected goals | 1.57 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 21% |
| Lecce clean sheet | 46% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Cagliari
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Hellas Verona · Coppa Italia | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Arezzo · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nice · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Lecce
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Palermo · Coppa Italia | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SS Monopoli · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bistrica · Club Friendlies | 5-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 11 | 3 | 2 |
| Lecce | 12 | 3 | 2 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Cagliari 0-2 Lecce | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Lecce 1-2 Cagliari | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Cagliari
- R. Idrissi (out)
- Y. Trepy (out)
- Y. Mina (out)
Lecce
- W. Geubbels (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Genoa 1-4 ComoSep 4, 2026
- Fiorentina 1-2 TorinoSep 5, 2026
- Inter 3-2 NapoliSep 5, 2026
- AS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSep 5, 2026
- Frosinone 3-2 VeneziaSep 6, 2026
- Parma 1-1 MonzaSep 6, 2026
- Bologna 2-2 SassuoloSep 6, 2026
- Juventus 1-1 AC MilanSep 6, 2026
- Udinese 1-2 LazioSep 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cagliari vs Lecce prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cagliari a 19% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lecce 56%. Lecce are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Cagliari vs Lecce?
0-1 (15.0%), followed by 0-2 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (9.5%) and 1-2 (9.2%).
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
The probability that both Cagliari and Lecce score is 43%. Cagliari have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lecce 46%.
How many goals should we expect in Cagliari vs Lecce?
The model expects 2.35 goals (0.78 for Cagliari, 1.57 for Lecce). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Cagliari vs Lecce played?
Monday, September 7, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 3. Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari.
What form are Cagliari and Lecce in?
Cagliari: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 3 conceded). Lecce: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lecce?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cagliari, 1 for Lecce and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cagliari 0-2 Lecce (Feb 16, 2026).
What was the Cagliari vs Lecce result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cagliari 1-0 Lecce. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lecce (56%), while victory for Cagliari was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): correct.
How is the Cagliari vs Lecce prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.78 for Cagliari, 1.57 for Lecce) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.