Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Parma vs Monza: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Parma 1-1 Monza. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Parma (36%), while a draw was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (13.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): correct.
Match analysis
Parma vs Monza was played on Sunday, September 6, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 3). Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma. Before kick-off, our model gave Parma a 36% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Monza 33%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (14.7%), ahead of 1-0 (14.5%) and 0-1 (13.6%).
Parma have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Monza have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Monza. On average Parma score 0.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Monza score 2.00 and concede 2.00. In the table, Parma sit 16th with 0 points from 2 games, Monza 17th with 0 points from 2. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Parma have averaged 0.50 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.46 for Monza.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Parma, 0 for Monza and 3 draws. Parma out or doubtful: H. Nicolussi Caviglia, A. Bernabe and O. Diallo. Monza: P. Ciurria, M. Pessina, I. Toure, G. Varela and J. Ziolkowski. In double chance terms, "Parma or draw" stands at 67%, "Monza or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 68%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Parma – Monza. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Parma 0-0 Monza | 14.7% |
| Parma 1-0 Monza | 14.5% |
| Parma 0-1 Monza | 13.6% |
| Parma 1-1 Monza | 13.5% |
| Parma 2-0 Monza | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.92 goals in total (0.99 for Parma, 0.93 for Monza): over 2.5 goals has a 30% probability and both teams to score 38%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Parma keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Monza in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Parma expected goals | 0.99 |
| Monza expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 38% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Parma clean sheet | 40% |
| Monza clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Parma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | Cremonese · Coppa Italia | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Catania · Coppa Italia | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sampdoria · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Monza
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | Torino · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avellino · Coppa Italia | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Padova · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 16 | 0 | 2 |
| Monza | 17 | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Parma, 0 for Monza and 3 draws.
Out and doubtful
Parma
- H. Nicolussi Caviglia (out)
- A. Bernabe (out)
- O. Diallo (out)
Monza
- P. Ciurria (out)
- M. Pessina (out)
- I. Toure (out)
- G. Varela (out)
- J. Ziolkowski (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Genoa 1-4 ComoSep 4, 2026
- Fiorentina 1-2 TorinoSep 5, 2026
- Inter 3-2 NapoliSep 5, 2026
- AS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSep 5, 2026
- Frosinone 3-2 VeneziaSep 6, 2026
- Bologna 2-2 SassuoloSep 6, 2026
- Juventus 1-1 AC MilanSep 6, 2026
- Cagliari 1-0 LecceSep 7, 2026
- Udinese 1-2 LazioSep 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Parma vs Monza prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Parma a 36% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Monza 33%. Parma are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Parma vs Monza?
0-0 (14.7%), followed by 1-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.5%) and 2-0 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Parma vs Monza?
The probability that both Parma and Monza score is 38%. Parma have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Monza 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Parma vs Monza?
The model expects 1.92 goals (0.99 for Parma, 0.93 for Monza). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 57%, over 2.5 goals 30%, over 3.5 goals 13%.
When and where is Parma vs Monza played?
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 3. Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma.
What form are Parma and Monza in?
Parma: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 7 conceded). Monza: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Monza?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Parma, 0 for Monza and 3 draws.
What was the Parma vs Monza result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Parma 1-1 Monza. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Parma (36%), while a draw was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (13.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): correct.
How is the Parma vs Monza prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.99 for Parma, 0.93 for Monza) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.