Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Atalanta vs Sassuolo: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Atalanta at 55%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
Match analysis
Atalanta and Sassuolo met on Sunday, August 23, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 1 fixture. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Before kick-off, our model gave Atalanta a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sassuolo 21%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%) and 2-0 (10.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atalanta have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Sassuolo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. Atalanta therefore arrive in far better shape than Sassuolo. On average Atalanta score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Sassuolo score 1.20 and concede 1.80.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atalanta, 2 for Sassuolo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sassuolo 2-1 Atalanta (Mar 1, 2026). Atalanta out or doubtful: I. Hien, G. Scalvini, K. Sulemana and H. Ahanor. Sassuolo: F. Cande, I. Kone, Y. Paz, E. Pieragnolo and D. Berardi. In double chance terms, "Atalanta or draw" stands at 79%, "Sassuolo or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atalanta – Sassuolo. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atalanta 1-0 Sassuolo | 11.6% |
| Atalanta 1-1 Sassuolo | 11.3% |
| Atalanta 2-0 Sassuolo | 10.1% |
| Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo | 9.8% |
| Atalanta 0-0 Sassuolo | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.73 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.97 for Sassuolo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Sassuolo in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atalanta expected goals | 1.73 |
| Sassuolo expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 38% |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Atalanta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Athletic Club · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Feyenoord · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Arezzo · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
Sassuolo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cesena · Coppa Italia | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Celta Vigo · Club Friendlies | 1-4 | L |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Folgore Caratese · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Trento · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Sassuolo | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Sassuolo 2-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Atalanta 0-3 Sassuolo | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Atalanta
- I. Hien (out)
- G. Scalvini (out)
- K. Sulemana (out)
- H. Ahanor (out)
Sassuolo
- F. Cande (out)
- I. Kone (out)
- Y. Paz (out)
- E. Pieragnolo (out)
- D. Berardi (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Inter 4-1 MonzaAug 22, 2026
- Udinese 1-1 ComoAug 22, 2026
- Parma 0-1 CagliariAug 22, 2026
- Genoa 0-2 NapoliAug 22, 2026
- Frosinone 0-1 JuventusAug 23, 2026
- Venezia 0-2 LecceAug 23, 2026
- Torino 1-2 AC MilanAug 23, 2026
- Bologna 0-1 LazioAug 24, 2026
- AS Roma 4-0 FiorentinaAug 24, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atalanta vs Sassuolo prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atalanta a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sassuolo 21%. Atalanta are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
The probability that both Atalanta and Sassuolo score is 51%. Atalanta have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sassuolo 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
The model expects 2.70 goals (1.73 for Atalanta, 0.97 for Sassuolo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Atalanta vs Sassuolo played?
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 1. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo.
What form are Atalanta and Sassuolo in?
Atalanta: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Sassuolo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Sassuolo?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atalanta, 2 for Sassuolo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sassuolo 2-1 Atalanta (Mar 1, 2026).
What was the Atalanta vs Sassuolo result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Atalanta at 55%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
How is the Atalanta vs Sassuolo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.73 for Atalanta, 0.97 for Sassuolo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atalanta predictions
- All Sassuolo predictions
- Serie A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology