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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

AS Roma vs Fiorentina: 4-0 result and AI prediction review

AS RomaAS Roma4 – 0FiorentinaFiorentina

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for AS Roma was the model's favourite outcome (57%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

AS Roma vs Fiorentina was played on Monday, August 24, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 1). Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Before kick-off, our model gave AS Roma a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 18%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).

AS Roma have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Fiorentina have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Fiorentina. On average AS Roma score 2.00 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Fiorentina score 2.00 and concede 1.40.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. The most recent ended AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina (May 4, 2026). AS Roma out or doubtful: M. Bah and L. Pellegrini. Fiorentina: F. Parisi and R. Sottil. In double chance terms, "AS Roma or draw" stands at 82%, "Fiorentina or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

57%
AS Roma (Win)
25%
Draw
18%
Fiorentina (Win)

Double chance

82%
AS Roma or draw
43%
Fiorentina or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as AS Roma – Fiorentina. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
AS Roma 1-1 Fiorentina12.0%
AS Roma 1-0 Fiorentina11.3%
AS Roma 2-1 Fiorentina9.4%
AS Roma 2-0 Fiorentina8.9%
AS Roma 0-1 Fiorentina7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.58 for AS Roma, 1.06 for Fiorentina): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Fiorentina in 21%.

Probability
AS Roma expected goals1.58
Fiorentina expected goals1.06
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
AS Roma clean sheet35%
Fiorentina clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

AS Roma

DateOpponentScore
Aug 15, 2026Borussia Dortmund · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 8, 2026Brighton · Club Friendlies0-3L
Aug 4, 2026Newport County · Club Friendlies4-1W
Aug 1, 2026Cardiff · Club Friendlies1-4L
Jul 26, 2026Cannes · Club Friendlies3-3D

Fiorentina

DateOpponentScore
Aug 14, 2026Benevento · Coppa Italia4-1W
Aug 6, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies1-1D
Aug 1, 2026Real Madrid · Club Friendlies2-2D
Jul 29, 2026Watford · Club Friendlies1-0W
Jul 25, 2026QPR · Club Friendlies2-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
AS Roma1000
Fiorentina1300

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 4, 2026AS Roma 4-0 FiorentinaSerie A
Oct 5, 2025Fiorentina 1-2 AS RomaSerie A

Out and doubtful

AS Roma

  • M. Bah (out)
  • L. Pellegrini (out)

Fiorentina

  • F. Parisi (out)
  • R. Sottil (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the AS Roma vs Fiorentina prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave AS Roma a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 18%. AS Roma are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.

What is the most likely correct score for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

The probability that both AS Roma and Fiorentina score is 52%. AS Roma have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fiorentina 21%.

How many goals should we expect in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

The model expects 2.64 goals (1.58 for AS Roma, 1.06 for Fiorentina). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is AS Roma vs Fiorentina played?

Monday, August 24, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 1. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.

What form are AS Roma and Fiorentina in?

AS Roma: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 13 conceded). Fiorentina: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. The most recent ended AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina (May 4, 2026).

What was the AS Roma vs Fiorentina result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for AS Roma was the model's favourite outcome (57%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the AS Roma vs Fiorentina prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.58 for AS Roma, 1.06 for Fiorentina) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained