Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Parma vs Cagliari: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Parma 0-1 Cagliari. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Parma (49%), while victory for Cagliari was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
Parma vs Cagliari was played on Saturday, August 22, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 1). Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma. Before kick-off, our model gave Parma a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cagliari 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Parma have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 4 and conceding 4. Cagliari are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 4 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Cagliari. On average Parma score 0.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Cagliari score 0.80 and concede 0.40.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Parma, 1 for Cagliari and 1 draw. The most recent ended Parma 1-1 Cagliari (Feb 27, 2026). Parma out or doubtful: S. Britschgi, B. Cremaschi, H. Nicolussi Caviglia, D. Romero and B. Balogh. Cagliari: S. Esposito, R. Idrissi and Y. Trepy. In double chance terms, "Parma or draw" stands at 74%, "Cagliari or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Parma – Cagliari. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Parma 1-1 Cagliari | 12.0% |
| Parma 1-0 Cagliari | 11.3% |
| Parma 2-1 Cagliari | 9.4% |
| Parma 2-0 Cagliari | 8.9% |
| Parma 0-1 Cagliari | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.58 for Parma, 1.06 for Cagliari): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Parma keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Cagliari in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Parma expected goals | 1.58 |
| Cagliari expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Parma clean sheet | 35% |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Parma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Catania · Coppa Italia | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sampdoria · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Iraklis 1908 · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Arezzo · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sassuolo · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Cagliari
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Arezzo · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nice · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Union Berlin · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Modena · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Sampdoria · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Cagliari | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Parma 1-1 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Cagliari 2-0 Parma | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Parma
- S. Britschgi (out)
- B. Cremaschi (out)
- H. Nicolussi Caviglia (out)
- D. Romero (out)
- B. Balogh (out)
Cagliari
- S. Esposito (out)
- R. Idrissi (out)
- Y. Trepy (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Inter 4-1 MonzaAug 22, 2026
- Udinese 1-1 ComoAug 22, 2026
- Genoa 0-2 NapoliAug 22, 2026
- Frosinone 0-1 JuventusAug 23, 2026
- Venezia 0-2 LecceAug 23, 2026
- Atalanta 2-1 SassuoloAug 23, 2026
- Torino 1-2 AC MilanAug 23, 2026
- Bologna 0-1 LazioAug 24, 2026
- AS Roma 4-0 FiorentinaAug 24, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Parma vs Cagliari prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Parma a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cagliari 26%. Parma are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Parma vs Cagliari?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cagliari?
The probability that both Parma and Cagliari score is 52%. Parma have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cagliari 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Parma vs Cagliari?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.58 for Parma, 1.06 for Cagliari). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Parma vs Cagliari played?
Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 1. Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma.
What form are Parma and Cagliari in?
Parma: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). Cagliari: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Parma, 1 for Cagliari and 1 draw. The most recent ended Parma 1-1 Cagliari (Feb 27, 2026).
What was the Parma vs Cagliari result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Parma 0-1 Cagliari. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Parma (49%), while victory for Cagliari was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.6%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the Parma vs Cagliari prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.58 for Parma, 1.06 for Cagliari) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.