Serie A· Kick-off : Monday, October 12, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Atalanta vs Venezia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie A, matchday 6: the Atalanta vs Venezia match is scheduled on Monday, October 12, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time). Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo. It is a tight call: 43% for Atalanta, 29% for the draw and 28% for Venezia. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.7%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%) and 0-0 (12.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Venezia have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 13. Atalanta therefore arrive in far better shape than Venezia. On average Atalanta score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Venezia score 1.00 and concede 2.60. In the table, Atalanta sit 11th with 6 points from 5 games, Venezia 20th with 0 points from 5. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Atalanta have averaged 0.80 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.34 for Venezia.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Venezia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atalanta 0-0 Venezia (Mar 1, 2025). Atalanta out or doubtful: K. Sulemana and I. Hien. Venezia: B. Franjić, A. Adorante, T. Bašić and M. Šverko. In double chance terms, "Atalanta or draw" stands at 72%, "Venezia or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Atalanta are favourites for this Atalanta v Venezia, with a 43% win probability from our model. On recent form, Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Venezia are struggling (5 losses in 5). One to watch: Venezia will be without B. Franjić and A. Adorante.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atalanta – Venezia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atalanta 1-0 Venezia | 14.7% |
| Atalanta 1-1 Venezia | 13.2% |
| Atalanta 0-0 Venezia | 12.4% |
| Atalanta 0-1 Venezia | 11.1% |
| Atalanta 2-0 Venezia | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.19 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.90 for Venezia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 35% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Venezia in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atalanta expected goals | 1.19 |
| Venezia expected goals | 0.90 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 41% |
| Venezia clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atalanta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
Venezia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Udinese · Coppa Italia | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | AC Milan · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Venezia | 20 | 0 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | Atalanta 0-0 Venezia | Serie A |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Venezia 0-2 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Venezia 1-3 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Jan 12, 2022 | Atalanta 2-0 Venezia | Coppa Italia |
| Nov 30, 2021 | Atalanta 4-0 Venezia | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Atalanta
- K. Sulemana (out)
- I. Hien (out)
Venezia
- B. Franjić (out)
- A. Adorante (out)
- T. Bašić (out)
- M. Šverko (out)
Most regular starters
Atalanta
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Ederson4/5
- G. Scalvini4/5
- M. Carnesecchi4/5
- O. Kossounou4/5
- S. Kolasinac4/5
- C. De Ketelaere3/5
- G. Gaetano3/5
- G. Scamacca3/5
- L. Samardzic3/5
- R. Bellanova3/5
- G. Raspadori2/5
Venezia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Adams4/5
- A. Hainaut4/5
- F. Stankovic4/5
- J. Schingtienne4/5
- K. Perez4/5
- S. Sohm4/5
- A. Bella-Kotchap3/5
- G. Busio3/5
- J. Yeboah3/5
- R. Haps3/5
- A. Rrahmani2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Genoa – FiorentinaOct 10, 2026
- Inter – ParmaOct 10, 2026
- Napoli – FrosinoneOct 10, 2026
- Como – AS RomaOct 11, 2026
- Lazio – MonzaOct 11, 2026
- Lecce – BolognaOct 11, 2026
- Sassuolo – AC MilanOct 11, 2026
- Cagliari – JuventusOct 11, 2026
- Torino – UdineseOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atalanta vs Venezia prediction?
Our AI gives Atalanta a 43% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Venezia 28%. Atalanta are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atalanta vs Venezia?
1-0 (14.7%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.1%) and 2-0 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Venezia?
The probability that both Atalanta and Venezia score is 41%. Atalanta have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Venezia 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Atalanta vs Venezia?
The model expects 2.09 goals (1.19 for Atalanta, 0.90 for Venezia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.
When and where is Atalanta vs Venezia played?
Monday, October 12, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 6. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo.
What form are Atalanta and Venezia in?
Atalanta: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Venezia: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Venezia?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Venezia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atalanta 0-0 Venezia (Mar 1, 2025).
How is the Atalanta vs Venezia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.19 for Atalanta, 0.90 for Venezia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atalanta predictions
- All Venezia predictions
- Serie A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology