Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie A, matchday 6: Genoa vs Fiorentina kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa. The edge goes to Fiorentina (59%), ahead of the draw (22%) and a Genoa win (19%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.3%), ahead of 0-1 (10.2%) and 1-2 (9.9%).
Genoa have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Fiorentina have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Genoa score 0.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Fiorentina score 1.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Genoa sit 19th with 1 points from 5 games, Fiorentina 17th with 4 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Genoa have averaged 0.95 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.06 for Fiorentina.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Genoa, 2 for Fiorentina and 3 draws. The most recent ended Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa (May 10, 2026). Genoa out or doubtful: E. Havel, J. Vasquez (suspended) and L. Venturino. Fiorentina: F. Parisi and R. Sottil. In double chance terms, "Genoa or draw" stands at 41%, "Fiorentina or draw" at 81% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Fiorentina are favourites for this Genoa v Fiorentina, with a 59% win probability from our model. In the table, Genoa (19th, 1 pts) host Fiorentina (17th, 4 pts). One to watch: Genoa will be without E. Havel and J. Vasquez.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Genoa – Fiorentina. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Genoa 1-1 Fiorentina | 10.3% |
| Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina | 10.2% |
| Genoa 1-2 Fiorentina | 9.9% |
| Genoa 0-2 Fiorentina | 9.8% |
| Genoa 1-3 Fiorentina | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.94 goals in total (1.01 for Genoa, 1.93 for Fiorentina): over 2.5 goals has a 56% probability and both teams to score 54%. Genoa keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, Fiorentina in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Genoa expected goals | 1.01 |
| Fiorentina expected goals | 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 15% |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Genoa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Fiorentina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa · Coppa Italia | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 19 | 1 | 5 |
| Fiorentina | 17 | 4 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Genoa 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Fiorentina 2-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Genoa
- E. Havel (out)
- J. Vasquez (suspended)
- L. Venturino (out)
Fiorentina
- F. Parisi (out)
- R. Sottil (out)
Most regular starters
Genoa
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Marcandalli4/5
- T. Baldanzi4/5
- D. Sow3/5
- J. Bijlow3/5
- J. Vasquez3/5
- L. Colombo3/5
- L. Ostigard3/5
- M. E. Ellertsson3/5
- M. Frendrup3/5
- M. Osmajic2/5
- Alessandro Marcandalli1/5
Fiorentina
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Ndour3/5
- D. de Gea3/5
- F. Mastantuono3/5
- R. Dragusin3/5
- Viery3/5
- A. Atta2/5
- A. Jimenez2/5
- A. Njie2/5
- C. Inao Oulai2/5
- Franco Mastantuono2/5
- M. Brescianini2/5
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction?
Our AI gives Genoa a 19% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fiorentina 59%. Fiorentina are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
1-1 (10.3%), followed by 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%) and 1-3 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
The probability that both Genoa and Fiorentina score is 54%. Genoa have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fiorentina 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
The model expects 2.94 goals (1.01 for Genoa, 1.93 for Fiorentina). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Genoa vs Fiorentina played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 6. Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa.
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in?
Genoa: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded). Fiorentina: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Genoa, 2 for Fiorentina and 3 draws. The most recent ended Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa (May 10, 2026).
How is the Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.01 for Genoa, 1.93 for Fiorentina) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Genoa predictions
- All Fiorentina predictions
- Serie A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology