Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Genoa vs Fiorentina: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Fiorentina (42%), while victory for Genoa was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): missed.
Match analysis
Genoa vs Fiorentina was played on Saturday, October 10, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 6). Venue: Luigi Ferraris, Genoa. Before kick-off, our model gave Genoa a 29% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Fiorentina 42%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (14.5%), ahead of 1-1 (13.3%) and 0-0 (12.4%).
Genoa have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Fiorentina have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Genoa score 0.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Fiorentina score 1.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Genoa sit 19th with 1 points from 5 games, Fiorentina 17th with 4 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Genoa have averaged 1.12 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.06 for Fiorentina.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Genoa, 2 for Fiorentina and 3 draws. The most recent ended Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa (May 10, 2026). Genoa out or doubtful: L. Venturino, Amorim, L. Colombo, E. Havel, F. Meichtry and D. Sow. Fiorentina: R. Sottil, A. Atta and F. Parisi. In double chance terms, "Genoa or draw" stands at 58%, "Fiorentina or draw" at 71% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Fiorentina are favourites for this Genoa v Fiorentina, with a 42% win probability from our model. In the table, Genoa (19th, 1 pts) host Fiorentina (17th, 4 pts). One to watch: Genoa will be without L. Venturino and Amorim.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Genoa – Fiorentina. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina | 14.5% |
| Genoa 1-1 Fiorentina | 13.3% |
| Genoa 0-0 Fiorentina | 12.4% |
| Genoa 1-0 Fiorentina | 11.4% |
| Genoa 0-2 Fiorentina | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.09 goals in total (0.92 for Genoa, 1.17 for Fiorentina): over 2.5 goals has a 35% probability and both teams to score 42%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Genoa keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Fiorentina in 40%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Genoa expected goals | 0.92 |
| Fiorentina expected goals | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 31% |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 40% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Genoa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-4 | L |
Fiorentina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa · Coppa Italia | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 19 | 1 | 5 |
| Fiorentina | 17 | 4 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Genoa 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Fiorentina 2-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Genoa
- L. Venturino (out)
- Amorim (out)
- L. Colombo (out)
- E. Havel (out)
- F. Meichtry (out)
- D. Sow (out)
Fiorentina
- R. Sottil (out)
- A. Atta (out)
- F. Parisi (out)
Most regular starters
Genoa
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Marcandalli4/4
- T. Baldanzi4/4
- D. Sow3/4
- J. Bijlow3/4
- L. Ostigard3/4
- M. E. Ellertsson3/4
- M. Frendrup3/4
- M. Osmajic3/4
- J. Vasquez2/4
- K. Ehizibue2/4
- L. Colombo2/4
Fiorentina
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Ndour3/5
- D. de Gea3/5
- F. Mastantuono3/5
- R. Dragusin3/5
- Viery3/5
- A. Atta2/5
- A. Jimenez2/5
- A. Njie2/5
- C. Inao Oulai2/5
- Franco Mastantuono2/5
- M. Brescianini2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Inter 3-0 ParmaOct 10, 2026
- Napoli 3-0 FrosinoneOct 10, 2026
- Como 0-0 AS RomaOct 11, 2026
- Lazio 3-1 MonzaOct 11, 2026
- Lecce 1-2 BolognaOct 11, 2026
- Sassuolo 1-1 AC MilanOct 11, 2026
- Cagliari 1-1 JuventusOct 11, 2026
- Atalanta 3-1 VeneziaOct 12, 2026
- Torino 2-1 UdineseOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Genoa a 29% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Fiorentina 42%. Fiorentina are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
0-1 (14.5%), followed by 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.4%) and 0-2 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
The probability that both Genoa and Fiorentina score is 42%. Genoa have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fiorentina 40%.
How many goals should we expect in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
The model expects 2.09 goals (0.92 for Genoa, 1.17 for Fiorentina). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.
When and where is Genoa vs Fiorentina played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 6. Venue: Luigi Ferraris, Genoa.
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in?
Genoa: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded). Fiorentina: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Genoa, 2 for Fiorentina and 3 draws. The most recent ended Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa (May 10, 2026).
What was the Genoa vs Fiorentina result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Fiorentina (42%), while victory for Genoa was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): missed.
How is the Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.92 for Genoa, 1.17 for Fiorentina) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Genoa predictions
- All Fiorentina predictions
- Serie A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology