Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Lecce vs Bologna prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie A, matchday 6: Lecce vs Bologna kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Venue: Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce. The edge goes to Lecce (54%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Bologna win (20%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.9%) and 2-0 (11.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lecce have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Bologna have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Lecce. On average Lecce score 1.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Bologna score 0.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Lecce sit 12th with 6 points from 5 games, Bologna 18th with 2 points from 5. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lecce have averaged 1.05 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.18 for Bologna.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lecce, 3 for Bologna and 2 draws. The most recent ended Bologna 2-0 Lecce (Apr 12, 2026). In double chance terms, "Lecce or draw" stands at 80%, "Bologna or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Lecce are tipped by our AI model in this Lecce v Bologna (54%). In the table, Lecce (12th, 6 pts) host Bologna (18th, 2 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lecce – Bologna. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lecce 1-0 Bologna | 14.7% |
| Lecce 1-1 Bologna | 11.9% |
| Lecce 2-0 Bologna | 11.3% |
| Lecce 0-0 Bologna | 9.6% |
| Lecce 2-1 Bologna | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.34 goals in total (1.53 for Lecce, 0.81 for Bologna): over 2.5 goals has a 42% probability and both teams to score 44%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Lecce keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Bologna in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lecce expected goals | 1.53 |
| Bologna expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Lecce clean sheet | 45% |
| Bologna clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lecce
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | AC Milan · Serie A | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Monza · Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Bologna
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sassuolo · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 12 | 6 | 5 |
| Bologna | 18 | 2 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Bologna 2-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Lecce 2-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Lecce 0-0 Bologna | Serie A |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Bologna 1-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Bologna 4-0 Lecce | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Lecce
No absences reported.
Bologna
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Lecce
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Veiga5/5
- L. Coulibaly5/5
- W. Falcone5/5
- A. Gallo4/5
- J. Siebert4/5
- K. Gaspar4/5
- S. Pierotti4/5
- I. Ilic3/5
- J. Monteiro3/5
- N. Stulic3/5
- O. Ngom3/5
Bologna
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Ferguson5/5
- N. Cambiaghi5/5
- R. Piccoli5/5
- T. Heggem5/5
- F. Bernardeschi4/5
- L. Skorupski4/5
- T. Pobega4/5
- A. Theate3/5
- E. Fauske Helland3/5
- E. Holm3/5
- J. Miranda3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Genoa – FiorentinaOct 10, 2026
- Inter – ParmaOct 10, 2026
- Napoli – FrosinoneOct 10, 2026
- Como – AS RomaOct 11, 2026
- Lazio – MonzaOct 11, 2026
- Sassuolo – AC MilanOct 11, 2026
- Cagliari – JuventusOct 11, 2026
- Atalanta – VeneziaOct 12, 2026
- Torino – UdineseOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lecce vs Bologna prediction?
Our AI gives Lecce a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bologna 20%. Lecce are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lecce vs Bologna?
1-0 (14.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Bologna?
The probability that both Lecce and Bologna score is 44%. Lecce have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bologna 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Lecce vs Bologna?
The model expects 2.34 goals (1.53 for Lecce, 0.81 for Bologna). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Lecce vs Bologna played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 6. Venue: Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce.
What form are Lecce and Bologna in?
Lecce: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 10 conceded). Bologna: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lecce, 3 for Bologna and 2 draws. The most recent ended Bologna 2-0 Lecce (Apr 12, 2026).
How is the Lecce vs Bologna prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Lecce, 0.81 for Bologna) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.