Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Lazio vs Monza prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie A, matchday 6: the Lazio vs Monza match is scheduled on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. With a 85% win probability, Lazio go in as strong favourites against Monza (6%), with the draw rated at 9%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (7.8%), ahead of 3-1 (7.7%) and 4-0 (7.3%).
Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 6. Monza have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Lazio. On average Lazio score 2.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Monza score 1.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Lazio sit 3rd with 13 points from 5 games, Monza 16th with 4 points from 5. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lazio have averaged 1.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.01 for Monza.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lazio, 0 for Monza and 2 draws. The most recent ended Lazio 5-1 Monza (Feb 9, 2025). Lazio out or doubtful: L. Pellegrini, Patric and A. Furlanetto. Monza: I. Touré, J. Ziółkowski and M. Pessina. In double chance terms, "Lazio or draw" stands at 94%, "Monza or draw" at 15% and "no draw" at 91%.
In short : Lazio are tipped by our AI model in this Lazio v Monza (85%). In the table, Lazio (3rd, 13 pts) host Monza (16th, 4 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lazio – Monza. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (7.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lazio 3-0 Monza | 7.8% |
| Lazio 3-1 Monza | 7.7% |
| Lazio 4-0 Monza | 7.3% |
| Lazio 4-1 Monza | 7.1% |
| Lazio 2-0 Monza | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.69 goals in total (3.71 for Lazio, 0.98 for Monza): over 2.5 goals has a 85% probability and both teams to score 61%. Everything points to an open game. Lazio keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Monza in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lazio expected goals | 3.71 |
| Monza expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 69% |
| Lazio clean sheet | 38% |
| Monza clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lazio
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Juve Stabia · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arezzo · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | AC Milan · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
Monza
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cremonese · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sassuolo · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 3 | 13 | 5 |
| Monza | 16 | 4 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | Lazio 5-1 Monza | Serie A |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Monza 0-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| May 4, 2024 | Monza 2-2 Lazio | Serie A |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Lazio 1-1 Monza | Serie A |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Monza 0-2 Lazio | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Lazio
- L. Pellegrini (out)
- Patric (out)
- A. Furlanetto (out)
Monza
- I. Touré (out)
- J. Ziółkowski (out)
- M. Pessina (out)
Most regular starters
Lazio
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Zaccagni5/5
- R. Belahyane5/5
- R. Floriani5/5
- T. Noslin4/5
- A. Pinamonti3/5
- C. Mandas3/5
- D. Doekhi3/5
- D. Frattesi3/5
- K. Taylor3/5
- N. Tavares3/5
- O. Provstgaard3/5
Monza
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Lucchesi5/5
- A. Carboni4/5
- E. Akinsanmiro4/5
- R. Mangas4/5
- S. Birindelli4/5
- D. Mota3/5
- E. Kouadio3/5
- J. Robinson3/5
- M. Folorunsho3/5
- A. Colpani2/5
- A. Strajnar2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Genoa – FiorentinaOct 10, 2026
- Inter – ParmaOct 10, 2026
- Napoli – FrosinoneOct 10, 2026
- Como – AS RomaOct 11, 2026
- Lecce – BolognaOct 11, 2026
- Sassuolo – AC MilanOct 11, 2026
- Cagliari – JuventusOct 11, 2026
- Atalanta – VeneziaOct 12, 2026
- Torino – UdineseOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lazio vs Monza prediction?
Our AI gives Lazio a 85% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Monza 6%. Lazio are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Lazio vs Monza?
3-0 (7.8%), followed by 3-1 (7.7%), 4-0 (7.3%), 4-1 (7.1%) and 2-0 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Monza?
The probability that both Lazio and Monza score is 61%. Lazio have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Monza 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Lazio vs Monza?
The model expects 4.69 goals (3.71 for Lazio, 0.98 for Monza). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 69%.
When and where is Lazio vs Monza played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 6. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
What form are Lazio and Monza in?
Lazio: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded). Monza: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Monza?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lazio, 0 for Monza and 2 draws. The most recent ended Lazio 5-1 Monza (Feb 9, 2025).
How is the Lazio vs Monza prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.71 for Lazio, 0.98 for Monza) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.