Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Napoli vs Frosinone prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie A, matchday 6: the Napoli vs Frosinone match is scheduled on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples. Frosinone start as favourites with a 52% chance of victory; Napoli are given 26% and the draw 22%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.3%), followed by 1-1 (9.2%) and 0-2 (6.7%).
Napoli have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Frosinone are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 4. Frosinone therefore arrive in far better shape than Napoli. On average Napoli score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Frosinone score 2.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Napoli sit 9th with 7 points from 5 games, Frosinone 6th with 10 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Napoli have averaged 1.60 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.78 for Frosinone.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Napoli, 1 for Frosinone and 1 draw. The most recent ended Napoli 2-2 Frosinone (Apr 14, 2024). Napoli out or doubtful: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno, Giovane, L. Marianucci, S. McTominay, A. Meret and L. Spinazzola. Frosinone: F. Grillitsch. In double chance terms, "Napoli or draw" stands at 48%, "Frosinone or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Frosinone are favourites for this Napoli v Frosinone, with a 52% win probability from our model. On recent form, Napoli have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Frosinone have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. One to watch: Napoli will be without Alisson Santos and A. Buongiorno.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Napoli – Frosinone. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Napoli 1-2 Frosinone | 9.3% |
| Napoli 1-1 Frosinone | 9.2% |
| Napoli 0-2 Frosinone | 6.7% |
| Napoli 0-1 Frosinone | 6.5% |
| Napoli 2-2 Frosinone | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.40 expected goals for Napoli and 2.04 for Frosinone, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 67% and "both teams to score" at 66%. Goals look likely in this one. Napoli keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Frosinone in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Napoli expected goals | 1.40 |
| Frosinone expected goals | 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 66% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 13% |
| Frosinone clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Frosinone
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Genoa · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Sassuolo · Coppa Italia | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 9 | 7 | 5 |
| Frosinone | 6 | 10 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | Napoli 2-2 Frosinone | Serie A |
| Dec 19, 2023 | Napoli 0-4 Frosinone | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Frosinone 1-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| Apr 28, 2019 | Frosinone 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2018 | Napoli 4-0 Frosinone | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Napoli
- Alisson Santos (out)
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- Giovane (out)
- L. Marianucci (out)
- S. McTominay (out)
- A. Meret (out)
- L. Spinazzola (out)
Frosinone
- F. Grillitsch (out)
Most regular starters
Napoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rrahmani4/5
- G. Di Lorenzo4/5
- M. Politano4/5
- R. Hojlund4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- S. Lobotka4/5
- A. Meret3/5
- A. Vergara2/5
- Alisson Santos2/5
- B. Gilmour2/5
- F. Anguissa2/5
Frosinone
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Oyono3/5
- A. Raimondo3/5
- G. Bracaglia3/5
- G. Calo3/5
- G. Calvani3/5
- G. Kvernadze3/5
- L. Palmisani3/5
- P. Masini3/5
- R. Schmid3/5
- S. Fini3/5
- G. Cittadini2/5
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Napoli vs Frosinone prediction?
Our AI gives Napoli a 26% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Frosinone 52%. Frosinone are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Napoli vs Frosinone?
1-2 (9.3%), followed by 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (6.7%), 0-1 (6.5%) and 2-2 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Frosinone?
The probability that both Napoli and Frosinone score is 66%. Napoli have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Frosinone 25%.
How many goals should we expect in Napoli vs Frosinone?
The model expects 3.44 goals (1.40 for Napoli, 2.04 for Frosinone). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Napoli vs Frosinone played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 6. Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples.
What form are Napoli and Frosinone in?
Napoli: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Frosinone: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Frosinone?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Napoli, 1 for Frosinone and 1 draw. The most recent ended Napoli 2-2 Frosinone (Apr 14, 2024).
How is the Napoli vs Frosinone prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.40 for Napoli, 2.04 for Frosinone) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Napoli predictions
- All Frosinone predictions
- Serie A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology