Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie A, matchday 6: Sassuolo vs AC Milan kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). It is a tight call: 34% for Sassuolo, 25% for the draw and 41% for AC Milan. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 0-1 (8.9%) and 1-2 (8.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sassuolo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Sassuolo score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; AC Milan score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Sassuolo sit 10th with 7 points from 5 games, AC Milan 5th with 11 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Sassuolo have averaged 1.49 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.34 for AC Milan.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sassuolo, 2 for AC Milan and 2 draws. The most recent ended Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan (May 3, 2026). Sassuolo out or doubtful: I. Koné, E. Pieragnolo, S. Walukiewicz, Fali Candé, D. Boloca and Y. Paz. In double chance terms, "Sassuolo or draw" stands at 59%, "AC Milan or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Sassuolo and AC Milan meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 25%). On recent form, Sassuolo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Sassuolo will be without I. Koné and E. Pieragnolo.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sassuolo – AC Milan. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan | 11.8% |
| Sassuolo 0-1 AC Milan | 8.9% |
| Sassuolo 1-2 AC Milan | 8.8% |
| Sassuolo 1-0 AC Milan | 7.8% |
| Sassuolo 2-1 AC Milan | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.33 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.50 for AC Milan, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 54% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 22% of scenarios, AC Milan in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo expected goals | 1.33 |
| AC Milan expected goals | 1.50 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 22% |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sassuolo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monza · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Frosinone · Coppa Italia | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
AC Milan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica · UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 10 | 7 | 5 |
| AC Milan | 5 | 11 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 14, 2025 | AC Milan 2-2 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Dec 3, 2024 | AC Milan 6-1 Sassuolo | Coppa Italia |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Sassuolo 3-3 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 30, 2023 | AC Milan 1-0 Sassuolo | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Sassuolo
- I. Koné (out)
- E. Pieragnolo (out)
- S. Walukiewicz (out)
- Fali Candé (out)
- D. Boloca (out)
- Y. Paz (out)
AC Milan
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sassuolo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Leysen5/5
- S. Cinquegrano5/5
- A. Lauriente4/5
- A. Muric4/5
- J. Doig4/5
- N. Matic4/5
- C. Volpato3/5
- J. Idzes3/5
- K. Bowie3/5
- K. Thorstvedt3/5
- L. Lipani3/5
AC Milan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Ramos4/5
- K. De Winter4/5
- M. Maignan4/5
- S. Pavlovic4/5
- A. Cisse3/5
- L. Modric3/5
- M. Gila3/5
- S. Chukwueze3/5
- Y. Musah3/5
- A. Rabiot2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Genoa – FiorentinaOct 10, 2026
- Inter – ParmaOct 10, 2026
- Napoli – FrosinoneOct 10, 2026
- Como – AS RomaOct 11, 2026
- Lazio – MonzaOct 11, 2026
- Lecce – BolognaOct 11, 2026
- Cagliari – JuventusOct 11, 2026
- Atalanta – VeneziaOct 12, 2026
- Torino – UdineseOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction?
Our AI gives Sassuolo a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AC Milan 41%. AC Milan are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 0-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.8%), 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-1 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
The probability that both Sassuolo and AC Milan score is 57%. Sassuolo have a 22% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AC Milan 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
The model expects 2.83 goals (1.33 for Sassuolo, 1.50 for AC Milan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Sassuolo vs AC Milan played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 6.
What form are Sassuolo and AC Milan in?
Sassuolo: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). AC Milan: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AC Milan?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sassuolo, 2 for AC Milan and 2 draws. The most recent ended Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan (May 3, 2026).
How is the Sassuolo vs AC Milan prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.33 for Sassuolo, 1.50 for AC Milan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sassuolo predictions
- All AC Milan predictions
- Serie A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology