Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Fiorentina vs Frosinone: 0-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Fiorentina 0-3 Frosinone. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (54%), while victory for Frosinone was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (0.4%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (10%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (4%): missed.
Match analysis
Fiorentina vs Frosinone was played on Saturday, August 29, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 2). Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. Before kick-off, our model gave Fiorentina a 25% chance of winning, the draw 54% and Frosinone 21%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (46.8%), ahead of 1-0 (18.7%) and 0-1 (16.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Fiorentina have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Frosinone have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Fiorentina. On average Fiorentina score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Frosinone score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Fiorentina sit 20th with 0 points from 1 games, Frosinone 14th with 0 points from 1. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Fiorentina have averaged 0.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.41 for Frosinone.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Fiorentina, 1 for Frosinone and 3 draws. Fiorentina out or doubtful: F. Parisi, R. Sottil and M. Kean. Frosinone: F. Ghedjemis. In double chance terms, "Fiorentina or draw" stands at 79%, "Frosinone or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 46%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fiorentina – Frosinone. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (46.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 93% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina 0-0 Frosinone | 46.8% |
| Fiorentina 1-0 Frosinone | 18.7% |
| Fiorentina 0-1 Frosinone | 16.8% |
| Fiorentina 1-1 Frosinone | 6.7% |
| Fiorentina 2-0 Frosinone | 3.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 0.76 goals in total (0.40 for Fiorentina, 0.36 for Frosinone): over 2.5 goals has a 4% probability and both teams to score 10%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 70% of scenarios, Frosinone in 67%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina expected goals | 0.40 |
| Frosinone expected goals | 0.36 |
| Both teams to score | 10% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 18% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1% |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 70% |
| Frosinone clean sheet | 67% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Fiorentina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Benevento · Coppa Italia | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Madrid · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Watford · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Frosinone
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juve Stabia · Coppa Italia | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Lazio · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Benevento · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sambenedettese · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 20 | 0 | 1 |
| Frosinone | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Fiorentina, 1 for Frosinone and 3 draws.
Out and doubtful
Fiorentina
- F. Parisi (out)
- R. Sottil (out)
- M. Kean (out)
Frosinone
- F. Ghedjemis (out)
Other matches in this competition
- AC Milan 2-0 VeneziaAug 28, 2026
- Monza 2-3 UdineseAug 29, 2026
- Sassuolo 2-1 TorinoAug 29, 2026
- Juventus 2-0 ParmaAug 29, 2026
- Napoli 1-2 ComoAug 30, 2026
- Lazio 1-0 GenoaAug 30, 2026
- Cagliari 0-1 InterAug 30, 2026
- Lecce 0-4 AS RomaAug 31, 2026
- Atalanta 1-0 BolognaAug 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fiorentina vs Frosinone prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Fiorentina a 25% chance of winning, the draw 54% and Frosinone 21%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome. Final score: 0-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
0-0 (46.8%), followed by 1-0 (18.7%), 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (6.7%) and 2-0 (3.7%).
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
The probability that both Fiorentina and Frosinone score is 10%. Fiorentina have a 70% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Frosinone 67%.
How many goals should we expect in Fiorentina vs Frosinone?
The model expects 0.76 goals (0.40 for Fiorentina, 0.36 for Frosinone). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 18%, over 2.5 goals 4%, over 3.5 goals 1%.
When and where is Fiorentina vs Frosinone played?
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 2. Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence.
What form are Fiorentina and Frosinone in?
Fiorentina: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). Frosinone: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Frosinone?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Fiorentina, 1 for Frosinone and 3 draws.
What was the Fiorentina vs Frosinone result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Fiorentina 0-3 Frosinone. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (54%), while victory for Frosinone was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (0.4%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (10%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (4%): missed.
How is the Fiorentina vs Frosinone prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.40 for Fiorentina, 0.36 for Frosinone) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fiorentina predictions
- All Frosinone predictions
- Serie A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology