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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Atalanta vs Bologna: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

AtalantaAtalanta1 – 0BolognaBologna

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Atalanta at 50%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

Match analysis

Atalanta and Bologna met on Monday, August 31, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Before kick-off, our model gave Atalanta a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bologna 23%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (12.4%), followed by 2-0 (11.5%) and 1-1 (10.6%).

Atalanta are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 7 and conceding 1. Over their last 5 matches, Bologna have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Atalanta therefore arrive in far better shape than Bologna. On average Atalanta score 1.40 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Bologna score 1.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Atalanta sit 9th with 3 points from 1 games, Bologna 14th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Atalanta have averaged 0.88 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.78 for Bologna.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atalanta, 1 for Bologna and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atalanta 0-1 Bologna (May 17, 2026). Atalanta out or doubtful: I. Hien, K. Sulemana, H. Ahanor, T. Kristensen and I. Sulemana. Bologna: N. Casale and O. El Azzouzi. In double chance terms, "Atalanta or draw" stands at 77%, "Bologna or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 73%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

50%
Atalanta (Win)
27%
Draw
23%
Bologna (Win)

Double chance

77%
Atalanta or draw
50%
Bologna or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Atalanta – Bologna. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Atalanta 1-0 Bologna12.4%
Atalanta 2-0 Bologna11.5%
Atalanta 1-1 Bologna10.6%
Atalanta 2-1 Bologna9.8%
Atalanta 3-0 Bologna7.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.85 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.85 for Bologna, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Bologna in 16%.

Probability
Atalanta expected goals1.85
Bologna expected goals0.85
Both teams to score48%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Atalanta clean sheet43%
Bologna clean sheet16%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Atalanta

DateOpponentScore
Aug 27, 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Aug 23, 2026Sassuolo · Serie A2-1W
Aug 20, 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League0-0D
Aug 14, 2026Athletic Club · Club Friendlies1-0W
Aug 8, 2026FC Schalke 04 · Club Friendlies3-0W

Bologna

DateOpponentScore
Aug 24, 2026Lazio · Serie A0-1L
Aug 15, 2026Brighton · Club Friendlies0-1L
Aug 8, 2026Pisa · Club Friendlies1-4L
Aug 1, 2026Cambuur · Club Friendlies3-1W
Jul 25, 2026Iraklis 1908 · Club Friendlies2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Atalanta931
Bologna1401

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 17, 2026Atalanta 0-1 BolognaSerie A
Jan 7, 2026Bologna 0-2 AtalantaSerie A

Out and doubtful

Atalanta

  • I. Hien (out)
  • K. Sulemana (out)
  • H. Ahanor (out)
  • T. Kristensen (out)
  • I. Sulemana (out)

Bologna

  • N. Casale (out)
  • O. El Azzouzi (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Atalanta vs Bologna prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Atalanta a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bologna 23%. Atalanta are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Atalanta vs Bologna?

1-0 (12.4%), followed by 2-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.1%).

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Bologna?

The probability that both Atalanta and Bologna score is 48%. Atalanta have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bologna 16%.

How many goals should we expect in Atalanta vs Bologna?

The model expects 2.70 goals (1.85 for Atalanta, 0.85 for Bologna). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Atalanta vs Bologna played?

Monday, August 31, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 2. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo.

What form are Atalanta and Bologna in?

Atalanta: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 1 conceded). Bologna: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atalanta, 1 for Bologna and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atalanta 0-1 Bologna (May 17, 2026).

What was the Atalanta vs Bologna result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Atalanta at 50%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

How is the Atalanta vs Bologna prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.85 for Atalanta, 0.85 for Bologna) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained