Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Lazio vs Genoa: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lazio 1-0 Genoa. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lazio at 62%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (25.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (23%): correct.
Match analysis
Lazio and Genoa met on Sunday, August 30, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 2 fixture. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Before kick-off, our model gave Lazio a 62% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Genoa 9%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (25.6%), followed by 0-0 (19.4%) and 2-0 (16.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lazio have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Genoa have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 14. Lazio therefore arrive in far better shape than Genoa. On average Lazio score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Genoa score 1.20 and concede 2.80. In the table, Lazio sit 10th with 3 points from 1 games, Genoa 15th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lazio have averaged 0.63 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.67 for Genoa.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lazio, 0 for Genoa and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lazio 3-2 Genoa (Jan 30, 2026). Lazio out or doubtful: D. Cataldi, F. Dele-Bashiru, A. Furlanetto, S. Gigot and A. Marusic. Genoa: E. Havel, H. J. Traore and L. Venturino. In double chance terms, "Lazio or draw" stands at 91%, "Genoa or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 71%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lazio – Genoa. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (25.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 77% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lazio 1-0 Genoa | 25.6% |
| Lazio 0-0 Genoa | 19.4% |
| Lazio 2-0 Genoa | 16.9% |
| Lazio 1-1 Genoa | 8.2% |
| Lazio 3-0 Genoa | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.32 expected goals for Lazio and 0.32 for Genoa, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 23% and "both teams to score" at 20%. Few goals are expected here. Lazio keep a clean sheet in 73% of scenarios, Genoa in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lazio expected goals | 1.32 |
| Genoa expected goals | 0.32 |
| Both teams to score | 20% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% |
| Lazio clean sheet | 73% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lazio
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mantova · Coppa Italia | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Frosinone · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ostia Mare · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ascoli · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Genoa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ascoli · Coppa Italia | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bournemouth · Club Friendlies | 1-10 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leicester · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Genoa | 15 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Lazio 3-2 Genoa | Serie A |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Genoa 0-3 Lazio | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Lazio
- D. Cataldi (out)
- F. Dele-Bashiru (out)
- A. Furlanetto (out)
- S. Gigot (out)
- A. Marusic (out)
Genoa
- E. Havel (out)
- H. J. Traore (out)
- L. Venturino (out)
Other matches in this competition
- AC Milan 2-0 VeneziaAug 28, 2026
- Monza 2-3 UdineseAug 29, 2026
- Fiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneAug 29, 2026
- Sassuolo 2-1 TorinoAug 29, 2026
- Juventus 2-0 ParmaAug 29, 2026
- Napoli 1-2 ComoAug 30, 2026
- Cagliari 0-1 InterAug 30, 2026
- Lecce 0-4 AS RomaAug 31, 2026
- Atalanta 1-0 BolognaAug 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lazio vs Genoa prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lazio a 62% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Genoa 9%. Lazio are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Lazio vs Genoa?
1-0 (25.6%), followed by 0-0 (19.4%), 2-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (8.2%) and 3-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Genoa?
The probability that both Lazio and Genoa score is 20%. Lazio have a 73% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Genoa 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Lazio vs Genoa?
The model expects 1.64 goals (1.32 for Lazio, 0.32 for Genoa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 49%, over 2.5 goals 23%, over 3.5 goals 8%.
When and where is Lazio vs Genoa played?
Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 2. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
What form are Lazio and Genoa in?
Lazio: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Genoa: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 14 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lazio, 0 for Genoa and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lazio 3-2 Genoa (Jan 30, 2026).
What was the Lazio vs Genoa result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lazio 1-0 Genoa. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lazio at 62%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (25.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (23%): correct.
How is the Lazio vs Genoa prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.32 for Lazio, 0.32 for Genoa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.