Serie B· Kick-off : Friday, November 6, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Ascoli vs Palermo: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ascoli 1-1 Palermo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Palermo (40%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): correct.
Match analysis
Ascoli vs Palermo was played on Friday, November 6, 2026 (Serie B, matchday 11). Venue: Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno. Before kick-off, our model gave Ascoli a 33% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Palermo 40%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (13.1%), ahead of 0-1 (11.7%) and 1-0 (10.4%).
Ascoli are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 14 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Palermo. On average Ascoli score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Palermo score 2.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Ascoli sit 3rd with 19 points from 10 games, Palermo 1st with 26 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Ascoli have averaged 1.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.58 for Palermo.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ascoli, 3 for Palermo and 1 draw. The most recent ended Palermo 2-2 Ascoli (May 5, 2024). In double chance terms, "Ascoli or draw" stands at 60%, "Palermo or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Ascoli and Palermo: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Ascoli have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Palermo are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 48%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ascoli – Palermo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ascoli 1-1 Palermo | 13.1% |
| Ascoli 0-1 Palermo | 11.7% |
| Ascoli 1-0 Palermo | 10.4% |
| Ascoli 0-0 Palermo | 9.3% |
| Ascoli 1-2 Palermo | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.38 goals in total (1.12 for Ascoli, 1.26 for Palermo): over 2.5 goals has a 43% probability and both teams to score 48%. Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Palermo in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ascoli expected goals | 1.12 |
| Palermo expected goals | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Ascoli clean sheet | 28% |
| Palermo clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ascoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Arezzo · Serie B | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Sampdoria · Serie B | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Catanzaro · Serie B | 6-1 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Empoli · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sudtirol · Serie B | 0-0 | D |
Palermo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus · Serie B | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Pisa · Serie B | 3-3 | D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Carrarese · Serie B | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Mantova · Serie B | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Empoli · Serie B | 4-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 3 | 19 | 10 |
| Palermo | 1 | 26 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2024 | Palermo 2-2 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Ascoli 0-1 Palermo | Serie B |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Ascoli 1-2 Palermo | Serie B |
| Aug 27, 2022 | Palermo 2-3 Ascoli | Serie B |
| May 4, 2019 | Ascoli 1-2 Palermo | Serie B |
Out and doubtful
Ascoli
No absences reported.
Palermo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ascoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Abdoul Guiebre3/5
- Andrea Oliveri3/5
- Andrea Silipo3/5
- Giovanni Corradini3/5
- Nicholas Rizzo3/5
- Samuele Damiani3/5
- Samuele Vitale3/5
- Simone D'Uffizi3/5
- A. Guiébré2/5
- A. Silipo2/5
- G. Acampora2/5
Palermo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Dennis Johnsen3/5
- Dominic Vavassori3/5
- Filippo Ranocchia3/5
- Jacopo Segre3/5
- Joel Pohjanpalo3/5
- Pietro Ceccaroni3/5
- Tommaso Augello3/5
- Tommaso Cassandro3/5
- Antonio Palumbo2/5
- D. Johnsen2/5
- F. Ranocchia2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Padova 2-2 EmpoliNov 7, 2026
- Pisa 2-2 SudtirolNov 7, 2026
- Cesena 1-0 CatanzaroNov 7, 2026
- Juve Stabia 1-0 ArezzoNov 7, 2026
- Mantova 0-0 Hellas VeronaNov 7, 2026
- Benevento 1-1 AvellinoNov 7, 2026
- Virtus Entella 0-2 ModenaNov 8, 2026
- Carrarese 0-1 SampdoriaNov 8, 2026
- Vicenza Virtus 1-4 CremoneseNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ascoli vs Palermo prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ascoli a 33% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Palermo 40%. Palermo are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Ascoli vs Palermo?
1-1 (13.1%), followed by 0-1 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.3%) and 1-2 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Palermo?
The probability that both Ascoli and Palermo score is 48%. Ascoli have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Palermo 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Ascoli vs Palermo?
The model expects 2.38 goals (1.12 for Ascoli, 1.26 for Palermo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Ascoli vs Palermo played?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Serie B, matchday 11. Venue: Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno.
What form are Ascoli and Palermo in?
Ascoli: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Palermo: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Palermo?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ascoli, 3 for Palermo and 1 draw. The most recent ended Palermo 2-2 Ascoli (May 5, 2024).
What was the Ascoli vs Palermo result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ascoli 1-1 Palermo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Palermo (40%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): correct.
How is the Ascoli vs Palermo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.12 for Ascoli, 1.26 for Palermo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.