Serie B· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Padova vs Empoli: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Padova 2-2 Empoli. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Padova (50%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.
Match analysis
Padova and Empoli met on Saturday, November 7, 2026, a Serie B, matchday 11 fixture. Venue: Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Padua. Before kick-off, our model gave Padova a 50% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Empoli 21%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (17.2%), followed by 0-0 (13.3%) and 1-1 (12.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Padova have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Empoli have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Padova therefore arrive in far better shape than Empoli. On average Padova score 1.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Empoli score 1.20 and concede 2.20. In the table, Padova sit 9th with 14 points from 10 games, Empoli 18th with 8 points from 10. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Padova have averaged 0.83 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.12 for Empoli.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Padova, 1 for Empoli and 0 draws. The most recent ended Padova 1-0 Empoli (Apr 12, 2026). In double chance terms, "Padova or draw" stands at 79%, "Empoli or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Padova are tipped by our AI model in this Padova v Empoli (50%). In the table, Padova (9th, 14 pts) host Empoli (18th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Padova – Empoli. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 64% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Padova 1-0 Empoli | 17.2% |
| Padova 0-0 Empoli | 13.3% |
| Padova 1-1 Empoli | 12.4% |
| Padova 2-0 Empoli | 11.2% |
| Padova 0-1 Empoli | 9.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.30 expected goals for Padova and 0.72 for Empoli, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 33% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Few goals are expected here. Padova keep a clean sheet in 49% of scenarios, Empoli in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Padova expected goals | 1.30 |
| Empoli expected goals | 0.72 |
| Both teams to score | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Padova clean sheet | 49% |
| Empoli clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Padova
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Catanzaro · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Sudtirol · Serie B | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Avellino · Serie B | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Virtus Entella · Serie B | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Carrarese · Serie B | 0-2 | L |
Empoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Juve Stabia · Serie B | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Cesena · Serie B | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus · Serie B | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Ascoli · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Palermo · Serie B | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 9 | 14 | 10 |
| Empoli | 18 | 8 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Padova 1-0 Empoli | Serie B |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Empoli 3-1 Padova | Serie B |
Out and doubtful
Padova
No absences reported.
Empoli
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Padova
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Alessandro Dellavalle5/5
- Alessandro Sorrentino3/5
- Emanuele Zuelli3/5
- Matteo Lovato3/5
- A. Sorrentino2/5
- Alessandro Capelli2/5
- Filippo Sgarbi2/5
- G. Artistico2/5
- G. Giunti2/5
- Gabriele Artistico2/5
- Giovanni Giunti2/5
Empoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bogdan Popov3/5
- Cristian Cauz3/5
- Edoardo Saporiti3/5
- Gerard Yepes3/5
- Jacopo Seghetti3/5
- Joseph Ceesay3/5
- Luca Magnino3/5
- Marco Curto3/5
- Niccolò Corrado3/5
- B. Popov2/5
- E. Saporiti2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Ascoli 1-1 PalermoNov 6, 2026
- Pisa 2-2 SudtirolNov 7, 2026
- Cesena 1-0 CatanzaroNov 7, 2026
- Juve Stabia 1-0 ArezzoNov 7, 2026
- Mantova 0-0 Hellas VeronaNov 7, 2026
- Benevento 1-1 AvellinoNov 7, 2026
- Virtus Entella 0-2 ModenaNov 8, 2026
- Carrarese 0-1 SampdoriaNov 8, 2026
- Vicenza Virtus 1-4 CremoneseNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Padova vs Empoli prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Padova a 50% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Empoli 21%. Padova are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Padova vs Empoli?
1-0 (17.2%), followed by 0-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.2%) and 0-1 (9.6%).
Will both teams score in Padova vs Empoli?
The probability that both Padova and Empoli score is 37%. Padova have a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Empoli 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Padova vs Empoli?
The model expects 2.02 goals (1.30 for Padova, 0.72 for Empoli). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Padova vs Empoli played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie B, matchday 11. Venue: Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Padua.
What form are Padova and Empoli in?
Padova: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded). Empoli: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Empoli?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Padova, 1 for Empoli and 0 draws. The most recent ended Padova 1-0 Empoli (Apr 12, 2026).
What was the Padova vs Empoli result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Padova 2-2 Empoli. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Padova (50%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.
How is the Padova vs Empoli prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.30 for Padova, 0.72 for Empoli) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.