Serie B· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 18:30 (UK time)
Benevento vs Avellino: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Benevento 1-1 Avellino. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Benevento (46%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.0%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): correct.
Match analysis
Benevento vs Avellino was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Serie B, matchday 11). Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento. Before kick-off, our model gave Benevento a 46% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Avellino 25%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.3%), ahead of 1-1 (13.0%) and 0-0 (12.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Benevento have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Avellino have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Benevento score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Avellino score 1.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Benevento sit 6th with 15 points from 10 games, Avellino 5th with 15 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Benevento have averaged 2.00 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.65 for Avellino.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Benevento, 3 for Avellino and 1 draw. The most recent ended Avellino 2-1 Benevento (Mar 30, 2025). In double chance terms, "Benevento or draw" stands at 75%, "Avellino or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Benevento are tipped by our AI model in this Benevento v Avellino (45%). In the table, Benevento (6th, 15 pts) host Avellino (5th, 15 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Benevento – Avellino. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Benevento 1-0 Avellino | 15.3% |
| Benevento 1-1 Avellino | 13.0% |
| Benevento 0-0 Avellino | 12.4% |
| Benevento 0-1 Avellino | 10.5% |
| Benevento 2-0 Avellino | 9.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.09 goals in total (1.24 for Benevento, 0.85 for Avellino): over 2.5 goals has a 35% probability and both teams to score 41%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Benevento keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Avellino in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Benevento expected goals | 1.24 |
| Avellino expected goals | 0.85 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% |
| Benevento clean sheet | 43% |
| Avellino clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Benevento
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cremonese · Serie B | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Catanzaro · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Arezzo · Serie B | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus · Serie B | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cesena · Serie B | 2-0 | W |
Avellino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Pisa · Serie B | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Virtus Entella · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Padova · Serie B | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cesena · Serie B | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Sampdoria · Serie B | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 6 | 15 | 10 |
| Avellino | 5 | 15 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | Avellino 2-1 Benevento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Benevento 2-2 Avellino | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Avellino 1-0 Benevento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Benevento 0-1 Avellino | Serie C - Girone C |
| May 1, 2017 | Benevento 2-1 Avellino | Serie B |
Out and doubtful
Benevento
No absences reported.
Avellino
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Benevento
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Siatounis3/5
- C. Dalle Mura3/5
- G. Vannucchi3/5
- M. Maita3/5
- Antonis Siatounis2/5
- C. Kouan2/5
- Christian Kouan2/5
- D. Lamesta2/5
- D. Okereke2/5
- David Okereke2/5
- Davide Lamesta2/5
Avellino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Izzo3/5
- B. Moruzzi3/5
- F. Missori3/5
- M. Venturi3/5
- P. Enrici3/5
- T. Martinelli3/5
- Brando Moruzzi2/5
- Filippo Missori2/5
- L. Di Maggio2/5
- Luca Palmiero2/5
- M. Besaggio2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Ascoli 1-1 PalermoNov 6, 2026
- Padova 2-2 EmpoliNov 7, 2026
- Pisa 2-2 SudtirolNov 7, 2026
- Cesena 1-0 CatanzaroNov 7, 2026
- Juve Stabia 1-0 ArezzoNov 7, 2026
- Mantova 0-0 Hellas VeronaNov 7, 2026
- Virtus Entella 0-2 ModenaNov 8, 2026
- Carrarese 0-1 SampdoriaNov 8, 2026
- Vicenza Virtus 1-4 CremoneseNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Benevento vs Avellino prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Benevento a 46% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Avellino 25%. Benevento are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Benevento vs Avellino?
1-0 (15.3%), followed by 1-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.5%) and 2-0 (9.5%).
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Avellino?
The probability that both Benevento and Avellino score is 41%. Benevento have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Avellino 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Benevento vs Avellino?
The model expects 2.09 goals (1.24 for Benevento, 0.85 for Avellino). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.
When and where is Benevento vs Avellino played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 18:30 (UK time), Serie B, matchday 11. Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento.
What form are Benevento and Avellino in?
Benevento: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Avellino: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Avellino?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Benevento, 3 for Avellino and 1 draw. The most recent ended Avellino 2-1 Benevento (Mar 30, 2025).
What was the Benevento vs Avellino result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Benevento 1-1 Avellino. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Benevento (46%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.0%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): correct.
How is the Benevento vs Avellino prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.24 for Benevento, 0.85 for Avellino) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Benevento predictions
- All Avellino predictions
- Serie B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology