Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
São Bernardo vs Criciuma: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: São Bernardo 0-1 Criciuma. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Criciuma at 49%. The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): correct.
Match analysis
São Bernardo and Criciuma met on Sunday, October 18, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 34 fixture. Venue: Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo. Before kick-off, our model gave São Bernardo a 25% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Criciuma 49%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (13.0%), followed by 1-1 (12.5%) and 0-2 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, São Bernardo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Criciuma have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average São Bernardo score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Criciuma score 1.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, São Bernardo sit 12th with 46 points from 33 games, Criciuma 5th with 56 points from 33. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, São Bernardo have averaged 0.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.47 for Criciuma.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for São Bernardo, 1 for Criciuma and 0 draws. The most recent ended Criciuma 1-0 São Bernardo (Jun 27, 2026). In double chance terms, "São Bernardo or draw" stands at 51%, "Criciuma or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Our model backs Criciuma to edge São Bernardo (49% probability). In the table, São Bernardo (12th, 46 pts) host Criciuma (5th, 56 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 47%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as São Bernardo – Criciuma. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| São Bernardo 0-1 Criciuma | 13.0% |
| São Bernardo 1-1 Criciuma | 12.5% |
| São Bernardo 0-2 Criciuma | 9.5% |
| São Bernardo 1-2 Criciuma | 9.1% |
| São Bernardo 0-0 Criciuma | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.96 expected goals for São Bernardo and 1.46 for Criciuma, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 44% and "both teams to score" at 47%. São Bernardo keep a clean sheet in 23% of scenarios, Criciuma in 38%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| São Bernardo expected goals | 0.96 |
| Criciuma expected goals | 1.46 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| São Bernardo clean sheet | 23% |
| Criciuma clean sheet | 38% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
São Bernardo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventude · Brasileirão Série B | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 2, 2026 | CRB · Brasileirão Série B | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
Criciuma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Ceara · Brasileirão Série B | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Londrina · Brasileirão Série B | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Avai · Brasileirão Série B | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Operario-PR · Brasileirão Série B | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 12 | 46 | 33 |
| Criciuma | 5 | 56 | 33 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Criciuma 1-0 São Bernardo | Brasileirão Série B |
Out and doubtful
São Bernardo
No absences reported.
Criciuma
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
São Bernardo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Alex Alves5/5
- Dudu Miraima5/5
- Felipe Garcia5/5
- Jemerson5/5
- Pedrinho5/5
- Augusto4/5
- Rodrigo Ferreira4/5
- Foguinho3/5
- Luizao3/5
- Mario Sergio3/5
- Fabricio Daniel2/5
Criciuma
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Airton5/5
- Fellipe Mateus5/5
- Jhonata Robert5/5
- Luciano Castan5/5
- Ronald Lopes5/5
- Marcelo Hermes4/5
- Marcinho4/5
- Nicolas4/5
- Rodrigo4/5
- Jean Irmer3/5
- R. Otero3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Ponte Preta 1-1 Atletico GoianienseOct 16, 2026
- Sport Recife 0-2 Fortaleza ECOct 17, 2026
- Ceara 2-2 JuventudeOct 17, 2026
- America Mineiro 1-0 Operario-PROct 17, 2026
- Avai 0-0 Athletic ClubOct 18, 2026
- CRB 0-1 Botafogo SPOct 18, 2026
- Vila Nova 2-2 NovorizontinoOct 18, 2026
- Goias 0-0 Nautico RecifeOct 19, 2026
- Londrina 1-0 CuiabaOct 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the São Bernardo vs Criciuma prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave São Bernardo a 25% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Criciuma 49%. Criciuma are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for São Bernardo vs Criciuma?
0-1 (13.0%), followed by 1-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-0 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs Criciuma?
The probability that both São Bernardo and Criciuma score is 47%. São Bernardo have a 23% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Criciuma 38%.
How many goals should we expect in São Bernardo vs Criciuma?
The model expects 2.42 goals (0.96 for São Bernardo, 1.46 for Criciuma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is São Bernardo vs Criciuma played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 34. Venue: Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo.
What form are São Bernardo and Criciuma in?
São Bernardo: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Criciuma: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between São Bernardo and Criciuma?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for São Bernardo, 1 for Criciuma and 0 draws. The most recent ended Criciuma 1-0 São Bernardo (Jun 27, 2026).
What was the São Bernardo vs Criciuma result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: São Bernardo 0-1 Criciuma. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Criciuma at 49%. The exact score 0-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): correct.
How is the São Bernardo vs Criciuma prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.96 for São Bernardo, 1.46 for Criciuma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All São Bernardo predictions
- All Criciuma predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology