Brasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC: 0-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sport Recife 0-2 Fortaleza EC. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sport Recife (58%), while victory for Fortaleza EC was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): missed.
Match analysis
Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC met on Saturday, October 17, 2026, a Brasileirão Série B, matchday 34 fixture. Venue: Ilha do Retiro, Recife. Before kick-off, our model gave Sport Recife a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fortaleza EC 20%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.1%), followed by 2-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sport Recife have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Sport Recife score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Fortaleza EC score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Sport Recife sit 8th with 51 points from 33 games, Fortaleza EC 4th with 57 points from 33. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sport Recife, 4 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fortaleza EC 2-1 Sport Recife (Jun 28, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sport Recife or draw" stands at 80%, "Fortaleza EC or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Sport Recife to edge Fortaleza EC (58% probability). On recent form, Sport Recife have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Fortaleza EC have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 59%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sport Recife – Fortaleza EC. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sport Recife 1-1 Fortaleza EC | 10.1% |
| Sport Recife 2-1 Fortaleza EC | 9.9% |
| Sport Recife 1-0 Fortaleza EC | 9.3% |
| Sport Recife 2-0 Fortaleza EC | 9.2% |
| Sport Recife 3-1 Fortaleza EC | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.97 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.08 for Fortaleza EC, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Goals look likely in this one. Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Fortaleza EC in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sport Recife expected goals | 1.97 |
| Fortaleza EC expected goals | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 34% |
| Fortaleza EC clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sport Recife
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense · Brasileirão Série B | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 6, 2026 | São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Juventude · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
Fortaleza EC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | CRB · Brasileirão Série B | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 8, 2026 | America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Athletic Club · Brasileirão Série B | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Londrina · Brasileirão Série B | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 8 | 51 | 33 |
| Fortaleza EC | 4 | 57 | 33 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 2-1 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| May 28, 2026 | Sport Recife 0-2 Fortaleza EC | Copa do Nordeste |
| May 21, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 1-2 Sport Recife | Copa do Nordeste |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 2-0 Sport Recife | Copa do Nordeste |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Fortaleza EC 1-0 Sport Recife | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Sport Recife
No absences reported.
Fortaleza EC
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sport Recife
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Benevenuto5/5
- Chrystian Barletta5/5
- Marcelo Ajul5/5
- Thiago Couto5/5
- Willian Oliveira5/5
- Rai4/5
- Claudinho3/5
- Juan Alano3/5
- Neto Pessoa3/5
- Augusto2/5
- de Pena Carlos2/5
Fortaleza EC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Joao Ricardo5/5
- Lucas Gazal5/5
- Luiz Fernando5/5
- Mailton5/5
- T. Cardona5/5
- Lucas Sasha4/5
- Pierre4/5
- Vitinho4/5
- Henrique Kaio3/5
- Pedro Henrique3/5
- Rodriguinho3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Athletic Club 2-2 LondrinaOct 13, 2026
- Ponte Preta 1-1 Atletico GoianienseOct 16, 2026
- Ceara 2-2 JuventudeOct 17, 2026
- America Mineiro 1-0 Operario-PROct 17, 2026
- Avai 0-0 Athletic ClubOct 18, 2026
- CRB 0-1 Botafogo SPOct 18, 2026
- São Bernardo 0-1 CriciumaOct 18, 2026
- Vila Nova 2-2 NovorizontinoOct 18, 2026
- Goias 0-0 Nautico RecifeOct 19, 2026
- Londrina 1-0 CuiabaOct 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sport Recife a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fortaleza EC 20%. Sport Recife are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
1-1 (10.1%), followed by 2-1 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 3-1 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
The probability that both Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC score is 57%. Sport Recife have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fortaleza EC 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
The model expects 3.05 goals (1.97 for Sport Recife, 1.08 for Fortaleza EC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 36%.
When and where is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 34. Venue: Ilha do Retiro, Recife.
What form are Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC in?
Sport Recife: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Fortaleza EC: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sport Recife, 4 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fortaleza EC 2-1 Sport Recife (Jun 28, 2026).
What was the Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sport Recife 0-2 Fortaleza EC. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sport Recife (58%), while victory for Fortaleza EC was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): missed.
How is the Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.97 for Sport Recife, 1.08 for Fortaleza EC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sport Recife predictions
- All Fortaleza EC predictions
- Brasileirão Série B predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology