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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 22:00 (UK time)

Vila Nova vs Novorizontino: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

Vila NovaVila Nova2 – 2NovorizontinoNovorizontino

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Vila Nova 2-2 Novorizontino. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Novorizontino (60%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (32%): missed.

Match analysis

Vila Nova vs Novorizontino was played on Sunday, October 18, 2026 (Brasileirão Série B, matchday 34). Venue: Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania. Before kick-off, our model gave Vila Nova a 13% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Novorizontino 60%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (20.0%), ahead of 0-2 (14.5%) and 0-0 (13.8%).

Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 6 and conceding 0. Over their last 5 matches, Novorizontino have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Vila Nova. On average Vila Nova score 1.20 and concede 0.00 goals per game; Novorizontino score 2.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, Vila Nova sit 1st with 61 points from 33 games, Novorizontino 3rd with 60 points from 33. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Vila Nova have averaged 0.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.68 for Novorizontino.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Vila Nova, 1 for Novorizontino and 0 draws. The most recent ended Novorizontino 2-1 Vila Nova (Jun 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Vila Nova or draw" stands at 40%, "Novorizontino or draw" at 87% and "no draw" at 73%.

In short : Novorizontino are tipped by our AI model in this Vila Nova v Novorizontino (60%). In the table, Vila Nova (1st, 61 pts) host Novorizontino (3rd, 60 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

13%
Vila Nova (Win)
27%
Draw
60%
Novorizontino (Win)

Double chance

40%
Vila Nova or draw
87%
Novorizontino or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Vila Nova – Novorizontino. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (20.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 67% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Vila Nova 0-1 Novorizontino20.0%
Vila Nova 0-2 Novorizontino14.5%
Vila Nova 0-0 Novorizontino13.8%
Vila Nova 1-1 Novorizontino10.6%
Vila Nova 1-2 Novorizontino7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.98 goals in total (0.53 for Vila Nova, 1.45 for Novorizontino): over 2.5 goals has a 32% probability and both teams to score 32%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Vila Nova keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Novorizontino in 59%.

Probability
Vila Nova expected goals0.53
Novorizontino expected goals1.45
Both teams to score32%
Over 1.5 goals59%
Over 2.5 goals32%
Over 3.5 goals14%
Vila Nova clean sheet24%
Novorizontino clean sheet59%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Vila Nova

DateOpponentScore
Oct 11, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Oct 8, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B0-0D
Oct 3, 2026Botafogo SP · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Sep 26, 2026Londrina · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Sep 18, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B1-0W

Novorizontino

DateOpponentScore
Oct 12, 2026Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B5-1W
Oct 8, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Oct 2, 2026Goias · Brasileirão Série B3-0W
Sep 25, 2026São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B0-0D
Sep 19, 2026Ceara · Brasileirão Série B1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Vila Nova16133
Novorizontino36033

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 26, 2026Novorizontino 2-1 Vila NovaBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Vila Nova

No absences reported.

Novorizontino

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Vila Nova

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Douglas Mendes5/5
  • Dudu5/5
  • Everton Galdino5/5
  • Hayner5/5
  • Helton Leite5/5
  • Janderson5/5
  • Joao Vieira5/5
  • Marquinhos Gabriel5/5
  • Andre Luis4/5
  • Higor4/5
  • Jonathan Costa3/5

Novorizontino

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Jordi5/5
  • Luis Oyama5/5
  • Nicolas Careca5/5
  • Romulo5/5
  • Sander5/5
  • Gabriel Bahia4/5
  • Madson4/5
  • Patrick4/5
  • Reidiney4/5
  • Robson4/5
  • Matheus Bianqui3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Vila Nova vs Novorizontino prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Vila Nova a 13% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Novorizontino 60%. Novorizontino are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?

0-1 (20.0%), followed by 0-2 (14.5%), 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (10.6%) and 1-2 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?

The probability that both Vila Nova and Novorizontino score is 32%. Vila Nova have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Novorizontino 59%.

How many goals should we expect in Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?

The model expects 1.98 goals (0.53 for Vila Nova, 1.45 for Novorizontino). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 59%, over 2.5 goals 32%, over 3.5 goals 14%.

When and where is Vila Nova vs Novorizontino played?

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 34. Venue: Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania.

What form are Vila Nova and Novorizontino in?

Vila Nova: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 0 conceded). Novorizontino: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Vila Nova and Novorizontino?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Vila Nova, 1 for Novorizontino and 0 draws. The most recent ended Novorizontino 2-1 Vila Nova (Jun 26, 2026).

What was the Vila Nova vs Novorizontino result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Vila Nova 2-2 Novorizontino. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Novorizontino (60%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (32%): missed.

How is the Vila Nova vs Novorizontino prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.53 for Vila Nova, 1.45 for Novorizontino) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained