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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 19:15 (UK time)

Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

CeljeCelje1 – 1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Celje 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë (4-1 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Celje (49%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

Match analysis

Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë was played on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Arena Z’dezele, Celje. Before kick-off, our model gave Celje a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Egnatia Rrogozhinë 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Celje have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Egnatia Rrogozhinë have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Celje score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Egnatia Rrogozhinë score 3.00 and concede 2.00.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Celje, 0 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 1 draw. The most recent ended Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3-3 Celje (Jul 22, 2026). In double chance terms, "Celje or draw" stands at 74%, "Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

49%
Celje (Win)
25%
Draw
26%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë (Win)

Double chance

74%
Celje or draw
51%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Celje – Egnatia Rrogozhinë. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Celje 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë12.0%
Celje 1-0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë11.2%
Celje 2-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë9.4%
Celje 2-0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë8.8%
Celje 0-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.63 goals in total (1.56 for Celje, 1.07 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Celje keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Egnatia Rrogozhinë in 21%.

Probability
Celje expected goals1.56
Egnatia Rrogozhinë expected goals1.07
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Celje clean sheet34%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Celje

DateOpponentScore
Jul 22, 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë · UEFA Champions League3-3D
Jul 8, 2026MTK Budapest · Club Friendlies4-3W
Jul 4, 2026Cukaricki · Club Friendlies1-1D
Jul 1, 2026HNK Hajduk Split · Club Friendlies0-1L
Jun 27, 2026Shkendija · Club Friendlies1-0W

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

DateOpponentScore
Jul 22, 2026Celje · UEFA Champions League3-3D
Jul 15, 2026Petrocub · UEFA Champions League6-1W
Jul 8, 2026Petrocub · UEFA Champions League1-1D
Jun 27, 2026FC Botosani · Club Friendlies3-1W
Aug 14, 2025Olimpija Ljubljana · UEFA Conference League2-4L

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 22, 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3-3 CeljeUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Celje

No absences reported.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Celje a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Egnatia Rrogozhinë 26%. Celje are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.8%) and 0-1 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

The probability that both Celje and Egnatia Rrogozhinë score is 52%. Celje have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

The model expects 2.63 goals (1.56 for Celje, 1.07 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë played?

Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 19:15 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Arena Z’dezele, Celje.

What form are Celje and Egnatia Rrogozhinë in?

Celje: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Egnatia Rrogozhinë: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 10 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Celje and Egnatia Rrogozhinë?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Celje, 0 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 1 draw. The most recent ended Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3-3 Celje (Jul 22, 2026).

What was the Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Celje 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë (4-1 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Celje (49%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

How is the Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.56 for Celje, 1.07 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained