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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Lech Poznan vs Aarhus: 0-3 result and AI prediction review

Lech PoznanLech Poznan0 – 3AarhusAarhus

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Lech Poznan 0-3 Aarhus (3-4 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lech Poznan (56%), while victory for Aarhus was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

Match analysis

Lech Poznan vs Aarhus was played on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Enea Poznań, Poznan. Before kick-off, our model gave Lech Poznan a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Aarhus 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.3%) and 2-0 (10.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Lech Poznan have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Aarhus have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Lech Poznan. On average Lech Poznan score 2.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Aarhus score 2.20 and concede 1.40.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lech Poznan, 0 for Aarhus and 0 draws. The most recent ended Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan (Jul 21, 2026). Aarhus: L. Callo, R. Gyamfi, T. Molgaard and N. Poulsen. In double chance terms, "Lech Poznan or draw" stands at 80%, "Aarhus or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 76%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

56%
Lech Poznan (Win)
24%
Draw
20%
Aarhus (Win)

Double chance

80%
Lech Poznan or draw
44%
Aarhus or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Lech Poznan – Aarhus. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Lech Poznan 1-0 Aarhus11.7%
Lech Poznan 1-1 Aarhus11.3%
Lech Poznan 2-0 Aarhus10.0%
Lech Poznan 2-1 Aarhus9.7%
Lech Poznan 0-0 Aarhus6.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.69 goals in total (1.72 for Lech Poznan, 0.97 for Aarhus): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Aarhus in 18%.

Probability
Lech Poznan expected goals1.72
Aarhus expected goals0.97
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Lech Poznan clean sheet38%
Aarhus clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Lech Poznan

DateOpponentScore
Jul 21, 2026Aarhus · UEFA Champions League4-1W
Jul 4, 2026Podbrezová · Club Friendlies3-1W
Mar 19, 2026Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Conference League2-1W
Mar 12, 2026Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Conference League1-3L
Feb 26, 2026KuPS · UEFA Conference League1-0W

Aarhus

DateOpponentScore
Jul 21, 2026Lech Poznan · UEFA Champions League1-4L
Jul 11, 2026Union St. Gilloise · Club Friendlies1-2L
Jul 5, 2026Motherwell · Club Friendlies4-0W
Jun 27, 2026Viborg · Club Friendlies1-1D
Feb 1, 2026FC Copenhagen · Club Friendlies4-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 21, 2026Aarhus 1-4 Lech PoznanUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Lech Poznan

No absences reported.

Aarhus

  • L. Callo (out)
  • R. Gyamfi (out)
  • T. Molgaard (out)
  • N. Poulsen (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Lech Poznan vs Aarhus prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Lech Poznan a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Aarhus 20%. Lech Poznan are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Lech Poznan vs Aarhus?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.8%).

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Aarhus?

The probability that both Lech Poznan and Aarhus score is 51%. Lech Poznan have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Aarhus 18%.

How many goals should we expect in Lech Poznan vs Aarhus?

The model expects 2.69 goals (1.72 for Lech Poznan, 0.97 for Aarhus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Lech Poznan vs Aarhus played?

Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Enea Poznań, Poznan.

What form are Lech Poznan and Aarhus in?

Lech Poznan: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded). Aarhus: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Aarhus?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Lech Poznan, 0 for Aarhus and 0 draws. The most recent ended Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan (Jul 21, 2026).

What was the Lech Poznan vs Aarhus result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Lech Poznan 0-3 Aarhus (3-4 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lech Poznan (56%), while victory for Aarhus was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

How is the Lech Poznan vs Aarhus prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.72 for Lech Poznan, 0.97 for Aarhus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained